[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220558
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1258 AM EST Thu Nov 22 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The 36-hour forecast, from the 22/0000 UTC forecast, consists of:
a cold front from 31N56W to 26N72W, then a stationary front to a
1015 mb low pressure center that is near 28N78W. Expect GALE-
FORCE winds within 90 NM N semicircle of the low pressure center,
and sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 15 feet. Please read the
latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST, that is listed under the AWIPS/WMO
headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N14W to 09N18W. The ITCZ continues from 09N18W to 05N28W
to 04N41W, to the Equator along 50W near the coast of Brazil.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from
03N to 07N between 12W and 27W, and from 08N southward between
30W and 40W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 12N southward
from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front cuts across the NW Bahamas, to South Florida near
26N81W, into the central Gulf of Mexico and 25N94W. The front
becomes stationary, and it curves to 26N96W, and continuing to the
northern part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico.
The front curves inland, toward the northwest, to 28N102W.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from
22N from 88W westward. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere
from 22N southward from 90W westward.

A low pressure center will develop along the current frontal
boundary on Thursday. The low pressure center and the frontal
boundary will weaken on Friday. A new cold front will move into
the NW Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. This front will reach from south
Florida to the Bay of Campeche on Monday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from 26N67W in the Atlantic Ocean, to
22N70W, to the western sections of the Dominican Republic.
Rainshowers are possible in Hispaniola from 70W westward.

Rainshowers are possible from 18N southward from 72W eastward.
24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that
ended at 22/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.09 in
Guadeloupe.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area.
Large-scale and broad middle level anticyclonic wind flow covers
the area that is from 14N northward. Large-scale and broad middle
level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 14N
southward. Anticyclonic wind flow covers the NW corner from 16N
northward from 80W westward. An inverted trough runs from central
Hispaniola southward at 700 mb. Broad NE wind flow at 700 mb
covers the rest of the western part/SW part of the Caribbean Sea.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are in
the coastal waters/coastal plains of Nicaragua and parts of
Honduras from 12N to 16N between 80W and 85W. Isolated moderate
rainshowers are in the SW coastal waters of Jamaica.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery from 06N to 22N between 52W and 68W, covering parts of
the Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N between 76W in Colombia and
83W/84W in southern Costa Rica, and beyond into the eastern
Pacific Ocean. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are
from 10N southward between Colombia and Costa Rica.

Fresh to occasionally strong winds will continue along the coast
of Colombia through Thursday, and decreasing on Friday. Fresh to
strong winds will return to the waters off the coast of Colombia
on Monday night. Long period NE swell in the Atlantic Ocean will
continue to impact the waters that are to the east of the Lesser
Antilles through early Thursday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through Bermuda, to 30N70W, across the NW
Bahamas, to South Florida near 26N81W, and into the central Gulf
of Mexico. A stationary front is within 160 nm to 200 nm to the SE
of the cold front. Isolated moderate rainshowers are to the
northwest of the line that runs through 32N40W, to 28N50W,
27N70W, and to the eastern coast of Florida near 26N60W. The
24-hour rainfall total in inches for Bermuda was 0.01, ending at
22/0000 UTC.

A surface trough extends from 26N67W in the Atlantic Ocean, to
22N70W, to the western sections of the Dominican Republic.
Isolated moderate rainshowers are within 60 nm on either side of
the surface trough.

A second cold front, in the eastern Atlantic Ocean, extends from
a 1015 mb low pressure center that is near 31N13W, across the
Canary Islands, to 24N23W, to a 1016 mb low pressure center that
is near 22N31W. The cold front continues from the 1016 mb low
pressure center, to 21N33W, and to 22N39W. Isolated moderate
rainshowers are within 90 nm on either side of the line that runs
from 23N24W to the middle part of the Canary Islands, and then
from the Canary Islands northward from 20W eastward.

A surface trough is along 21N25W, to a 1014 mb low pressure center
that is near 19N28W, and to 17N29W. Isolated moderate rainshowers
are from 17N to 21N between 20W and 30W.

A reinforcing front will push into the northern waters early on
Thursday. A low pressure center will form along the reinforcing
front, near the northern Bahamas on Friday. The forecast is for
gale force winds to develop, as the low pressure center intensifies
and tracks NE off the SE coast of the United States through
Saturday night. The sea heights outside the Bahamas will build to
between 10 feet and 16 feet from Friday through Saturday night.
A new cold front will move off the southeast coast of the United
States on Monday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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