[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240534
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1234 AM EST Sat Nov 24 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN HAS EXPIRED...

A cold front extends WSW from 32N47W to 26N62W to 25N71W, then
continues as a stationary front to the Straits of Florida near
24N80W. Another cold front extends from 32N52W to 30N55W. These
features support a large area of cloudiness and scattered
moderate convection north of 25N between 55W-69W. A recent
scatterometer pass from around 0200 UTC Saturday still depicts an
area of 30 kt winds from 27N-29N between 69W-75.5W. Buoy data in
the area shows winds of 30-33 kt with gale force gusts. In
addition to winds near gale force, seas of 9-13 ft are occurring
in the area. These conditions are expected to continue through
early this morning. Satellite imagery at 0500 UTC indicates that a
surface low has formed along the frontal boundary in the vicinity
of 25N71W. The low is expected to move N this morning and turn NE
this afternoon, followed by a rapid motion toward the east-
northeast across the western and central Atlantic on Sunday. The
system has a low chance of becoming a subtropical cyclone before
merging with a frontal system by early next week. Please refer to
the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued under the AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The western end of the monsoon trough over Africa is located near
the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 06N17W to 02N21W. The
ITCZ continues from 02N21W to 00N30W to 01S40W to 00N47W.
Scattered moderate convection is observed well north of the axis,
from 07N-18N between the W coast of Africa and 35W. Scattered
showers are from the ITCZ axis to 07N between 21W-35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1009 mb surface low is centered near 28N94W, with a cold front
extending from the low to 25N95W and a warm front from the low to
29N90W. Scattered moderate convection is observed over the
northeastern Gulf waters north of 26N east of 90W. The low will
move E in response to a mid to upper-level trough moving E from
the Plains to the Eastern US. The low will drag the attendant
frontal boundaries E with it to beyond the NE Gulf during the
weekend. Another cold front will move SE off the Texas coast on
Sun afternoon. The front will reach from the Florida Panhandle to
the Bay of Campeche early Mon, then stall across the far SE waters
on Tue. Winds will increase briefly to minimal gale force across
the far W and SW waters Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad surface trough extends from the Atlantic basin east of the
Bahamas to over central Hispaniola to 18N72W. Little to no shower
activity is evident. Broad upper-level ridging is maintaining
relatively dry conditions over the basin as the convection in the
vicinity of the monsoon trough over Panama and Costa Rica is being
inhibited by the subsident environment.

Fresh to locally strong trades are forecast across the tropical
waters E of the Windward Islands on Sat night. Locally strong
nocturnal trades are forecast to resume along the NW coast of
Colombia on Sat night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details
relating to the evolution of the features associated with the
near gales currently occurring well to the NE of the Bahamas. Most
of the shower activity associated with those frontal systems is
occurring NW of a line from 32N37W to 29N47W to 25N56W to 23N68W.
A surface trough extends NE from central Hispaniola to 24N68W. The
only convection is at the northern end of the trough associated
with the frontal system mentioned in the Special Features section.
To the east, a surface trough is noted from 11N57W to 19N56W with
isolated showers possible near the trough axis. Elsewhere, broad
high pressure centered WSW of the Canary Islands near 27N31W
extends across the area and will prevail through the weekend.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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