[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101204
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
704 AM EST Sat Nov 10 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING in the Gulf of Mexico...

A cold front is in the Gulf of Mexico, from 30N83W to 20N97W.
Expect N to NE GALE-FORCE winds and sea heights ranging from 8
feet to 10 feet, to the NW of the line that runs from 29.5N92W
to 22N98W. Elsewhere to the N of the cold front: N to NE winds
20 to 30 knots, and sea heights ranging from 6 feet to 9 feet.
Please read the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO
headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 28W/29W from 11N
southward. ITCZ-related precipitation is nearby.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 47W/48W from 16N
southward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are from 11N to 16N between 39W and 47W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 81W/83W from 20N southward.
19N, moving W at 10-15 kts. The upper level trough, that passes
on top of Hispaniola, into the central Caribbean Sea, toward the
east central Nicaragua, Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong rainshowers are in the coastal waters/plains of NE
Nicaragua. Other rainshowers are possible inland in Nicaragua.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W, to 07N16W. The ITCZ continues from 07N16W to
07N26W, to 06N32W, 04N38W, 05N43W, and then from 11N55W to
12N60W. Disorganized widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are from 09N southward between 25W and 41W. Isolated
moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 03N to 08N between
10W and 15W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers also are from 11N to 20N between 52W and 61W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 0300 UTC, a cold front extends from 29N85W to 21N97W.
Scatterometer data at 0300 UTC shows a broad area of gale force
winds present behind the front from 28N93W to 21N97W. Scattered
showers are to the north and south of the boundary that runs from
the Florida Big Bend near 29N85W to 21N97W. A gale warning is in
effect for the northwest Gulf tonight into early Sat for strong
winds following the front accompanied by gusts to gale force.

The front will stall by late Sat from near Fort Myers, Florida to
22N94W to near Puerto Veracruz Mexico, then weaken as it lifts
northward through Sun ahead of another front expected to move into
the northwest Gulf by Mon. Winds to gale force will follow this
stronger front over the western Gulf as it reaches from near
Pensacola, Florida to Tampico, Mexico by late Mon. Strong gales
are likely over the southwest Gulf Tue, possibly reaching storm
force off Veracruz, as the second front reaches from near Tampa
Florida to Coatzacoalcos Mexico. Winds and seas will diminish Wed
as the front sweeps southeast of the region.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from SE Bahama through the Mona
Passage, to 14N75W in the central Caribbean Sea. Scattered
showers are noted along the coast of Colombia from 11N to 13N
between 70W and 77W and in the proximity of the monsoon trough.

A surface trough is along 66W from 11N to 19N. Upper level SW
wind flow is moving through the area of the surface trough.
No significant convection is present at this time near the
trough.

Weak ridge north of the area will maintain gentle to moderate
trade winds across the region into Sat. Winds will increase east
of the Leeward Islands Sat as the ridge builds east. Winds and
seas increase slightly across the rest of the region early next
week as a high pressure builds north of the Bahamas. Looking
ahead, a cold front will bring fresh to strong N winds and seas to
9 ft will into the Yucatan Channel by mid week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad 1029 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near
32N44W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Atlantic Ocean
with mainly fair weather.Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection
are from 25N to 13N between 56W and 60W. Scattered showers are
noted from 30N between 60W and 65W.

The 69W/68W surface trough will maintain generally gentle to
light winds across the basin, with 3 to 5 ft NE swell in open
waters persisting through Saturday. A weak cold front will move
off northeast Florida overnight then become diffuse over the
Bahamas through the Mon. Another cold front will move off
northeast Florida by Tue, and reach from Bermuda to western Cuba
by late Wed. Meanwhile a trough or weak low pressure area may form
north of the Leeward Islands early next week and move to the
north of Puerto Rico by mid week ahead of the front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
mtorres/ec/mt
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