[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101741
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1241 PM EST Sat Nov 10 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING in the Gulf of Mexico...

A cold front is in the Gulf of Mexico, from 28N82W to the SW
corner of the Gulf of Mexico near 18N95W. Expect N to NE GALE-
FORCE winds and sea heights ranging from 9 feet to 13 feet, to
the NW of the line that runs from 28N91W to 26N94W to 22N96W.
Elsewhere to the W of the cold front: N to NE winds 20 to 30
knots, and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 10 feet. The wind
speeds are forecast to slow down enough in order to be less than
gale-force early in the afternoon today. Please read the High
Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 23W/25W from 11N
southward. This wave has been added to the 10/1200 UTC map
analysis based on long-loop satellite imagery and model guidance.
ITCZ-related precipitation is nearby.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 36W/37W from 12N
southward. This wave has been re-positioned based on long-loop
satellite imagery and model guidance. ITCZ-related precipitation
is nearby.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 48W/49W from 15N
southward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are from 12N to 16N between 43W and 48W. Broken to
overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are from
14N to 17N between 34W and 41W.

A surface trough is along 56W/57W from 08N to 16N. Scattered
moderate to strong rainshowers are from 12N to 15N between 54W
and 58W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are
elsewhere from 12N to 20N between 50W and 60W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 83W/84W from 20N
southward. The upper level trough, that passes across Hispaniola,
into the central Caribbean Sea, to the east central coast of
Nicaragua, is on top of the area of the tropical wave. Isolated
moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 17N southward from
80W westward, to the coastal sections and interior sections of
Honduras and Nicaragua.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is inland in Africa. The ITCZ is along 09N12W
07N17W 07N24W and 07N36W. Disorganized widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong rainshowers are from 10N southward between 22W
and 47W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are
elsewhere from 08N southward from 22W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through 32N78W in the Atlantic Ocean, across
Florida near Tampa, to 23N90W in the south central part of the
Gulf of Mexico, to 19N96W along the coast of Mexico in the SW
corner of the Gulf of Mexico, and then curving NW inland in Mexico
near 29N107W. A surface trough is within 90 nm to the east of the
cold front, from 26N to 32N. A surface ridge has developed from
the Rio Grande Valley of Texas along 100W, to the coastal plains
of Mexico near 19N97W. Gale-force winds will be lingering for a
few more hours, to the NW of the cold front. Please read the
SPECIAL FEATURES section for more details about the gale-force
winds. Isolated moderate rainshowers are to the NW of the line
that runs from 27N82W to 23N90W curving to 19N92W, and from 26N
southward from 87W eastward.

Winds to gale force are ongoing in the NW Gulf, with the current
cold front. The current cold front will move southward, and then
stall by late today from Fort Myers Florida to 22N94W to Puerto
Veracruz Mexico. The front is forecast to weaken as it moves
northward through Sunday. This front will be ahead of a second
cold front that is expected to move into the NW Gulf of Mexico by
Monday. Wind speeds to gale-force will follow the second front
in the western Gulf of Mexico as it reaches from Pensacola
Florida to Tampico Mexico by late Monday. Strong gale-force winds
are likely in the SW Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, possibly reaching
storm force off Veracruz, as the second front reaches from Tampa
Florida to Coatzacoalcos Mexico. The wind speeds and the sea
heights will diminish on Wednesday as the front sweeps to the
southeast of the region.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough passes through the Mona Passage, to 15N71W
near the central Caribbean Sea, to the east central coast of
Nicaragua. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are
from 17N southward from 80W westward, to the coastal sections and
interior sections of Honduras and Nicaragua.

A surface trough is along 64W/65W from 20N southward. Upper level
SW wind flow is moving through the area of the surface trough.
Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are in the area
that is to the SE of the line that runs from 20N63W to 15N70W, and
from 20N southward from 60W westward. 24-hour rainfall totals
that are listed for the period that ended at 10/1200 UTC,
according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TABLES... MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.19 in Guadeloupe.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N from 75W in Colombia,
westward, beyond Panama. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong rainshowers are from 12N southward from 75W in Colombia
westward.

Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 17N southward
from 70W westward.

Gentle to moderate trade winds across the region will prevail
through tonight. The wind speeds will increase to moderate to
fresh across the western and central Caribbean Sea on Sunday
morning, as a surface ridge builds north of the Bahamas. Fresh
to strong winds are expected across the Windward Passage, in the
adjacent waters of the SW Dominican Republic, and along the coast
of Colombia on Sunday night. The surface ridge is forecast to
shift eastward toward the north-central Atlantic Ocean through
Tuesday morning. A strong cold front will bring fresh to strong
N winds and sea heights to 12 feet into the Yucatan Channel and
the NW Caribbean Sea on Wednesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N78W in the Atlantic Ocean, across
Florida near Tampa, to 23N90W in the south central part of the
Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough is within 90 nm to the east of the
cold front, from 26N to 32N. Isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers are to the NW of the line that passes through 32N71W
to 27N80W at the coast of Florida.

An upper level trough passes through 32N63W to 23N65W, beyond the
Mona Passage, into to the Caribbean Sea. Widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong rainshowers are from 23N northward between 60W
and 67W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 20N
northward between 58W and 67W.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Atlantic Ocean from 22N
northward from 70W eastward. A 1028 mb high is near 33N45W.

The 32N78W-to-Tampa Florida cold front will become diffuse in the
Bahamas through Monday. A strong surface pressure gradient, that
will be between the cold front and a strong ridge that builds
behind across the eastern CONUS, will support fresh to strong
winds moving into the NW waters this evening. A second cold front
will move off northeast Florida on Tuesday evening, and it will
reach from Bermuda to western Cuba by late Wednesday. It is
possible that a surface trough or an area of low pressure may
form to the north of the Virgin Islands early on Wednesday, and
move to the north of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic
through Wednesday night. Fresh to near gale force winds are
possible mainly in the northern semicircle of this low pressure
center.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
mt
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