[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EST Sat Nov 10 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gulf of Mexico Gale...

As of 0300 UTC, a cold front over northwest Gulf of Mexico extends
from 29N85W to 21N97W. Scatterometer data after 0300 UTC shows a
broad area of gale force wind conditions present from the northern
Gulf near 28N93W to 21N97W. A gale warning is in effect for the
northwest Gulf tonight into early Sat for strong winds following
the front accompanied by gusts to gale force.

The front will stall by late Sat from near Fort Myers, Florida to
22N94W to near Puerto Veracruz Mexico, then weaken as it lifts
northward through Sun ahead of another front expected to move into
the northwest Gulf by Mon. Winds to gale force will follow this
stronger front over the western Gulf as it reaches from near
Pensacola, Florida to Tampico, Mexico by late Mon. Strong gales
are likely over the southwest Gulf Tue, possibly reaching storm
force off Veracruz, as the second front reaches from near Tampa
Florida to Coatzacoalcos Mexico. Winds and seas will diminish Wed
as the front sweeps southeast of the region. Refer to the High
Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis from 02N-10N near 28W,
moving W at around 10 kts. Scattered convection is noticeable in
the vicinity of the wave.

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 46W/47W from 14N southward.
Scattered moderate convection is present from 11N-16N between 38W
to 46W east of the wave axis.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 81W from 10N-19N, moving
W at 10-15 kts. The upper level trough that passes through the
Mona Passage, into the central Caribbean Sea, toward NE Nicaragua
is cutting across the area of the tropical wave. Scattered showers
are noted 80 nm on either side of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Africa near 07N13W to 07N15W. The
ITCZ extends from that point to 07N26W, then resumes west of the
tropical wave 06N31W to 05N43W. The ITCZ resumes west of another
tropical wave 11N54W to 12N60W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted south of the monsoon trough from 04N-
06N between 09W to 13W. Besides the convection associated with the
tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is mostly on either
side of the ITCZ. Scattered showers are also noticeable 100 nm on
either side of the ITCZ between 30W-40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 0300 UTC, a cold front extends from 29N85W to 21N97W.
Scatterometer data at 0300 UTC shows a broad area of gale force
winds present behind the front from 28N93W to 21N97W. Scattered
showers are to the north and south of the boundary that runs from
the Florida Big Bend near 29N85W to 21N97W. A gale warning is in
effect for the northwest Gulf tonight into early Sat for strong
winds following the front accompanied by gusts to gale force.

The front will stall by late Sat from near Fort Myers, Florida to
22N94W to near Puerto Veracruz Mexico, then weaken as it lifts
northward through Sun ahead of another front expected to move into
the northwest Gulf by Mon. Winds to gale force will follow this
stronger front over the western Gulf as it reaches from near
Pensacola, Florida to Tampico, Mexico by late Mon. Strong gales
are likely over the southwest Gulf Tue, possibly reaching storm
force off Veracruz, as the second front reaches from near Tampa
Florida to Coatzacoalcos Mexico. Winds and seas will diminish Wed
as the front sweeps southeast of the region.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from SE Bahama through the Mona
Passage, to 14N75W in the central Caribbean Sea. Scattered
showers are noted along the coast of Colombia from 11N to 13N
between 70W and 77W and in the proximity of the monsoon trough.

A surface trough is along 66W from 11N to 19N. Upper level SW
wind flow is moving through the area of the surface trough.
No significant convection is present at this time near the
trough.

Weak ridge north of the area will maintain gentle to moderate
trade winds across the region into Sat. Winds will increase east
of the Leeward Islands Sat as the ridge builds east. Winds and
seas increase slightly across the rest of the region early next
week as a high pressure builds north of the Bahamas. Looking
ahead, a cold front will bring fresh to strong N winds and seas to
9 ft will into the Yucatan Channel by mid week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad 1029 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near
32N44W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Atlantic Ocean
with mainly fair weather.Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection
are from 25N to 13N between 56W and 60W. Scattered showers are
noted from 30N between 60W and 65W.

The 69W/68W surface trough will maintain generally gentle to
light winds across the basin, with 3 to 5 ft NE swell in open
waters persisting through Saturday. A weak cold front will move
off northeast Florida overnight then become diffuse over the
Bahamas through the Mon. Another cold front will move off
northeast Florida by Tue, and reach from Bermuda to western Cuba
by late Wed. Meanwhile a trough or weak low pressure area may form
north of the Leeward Islands early next week and move to the
north of Puerto Rico by mid week ahead of the front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MTorres
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