[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100003
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
703 PM EST Fri Nov 9 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gulf of Mexico Gale...

A cold front entered the northwest Gulf of Mexico from 30N88W to
24N99W will continue to move southeast across the basin this
weekend. Strong winds and frequent gusts to gale force are
expected in the wake of the front over the northwest Gulf tonight
into Sat. Seas will range from 7 to 11 feet. Refer to the High
Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 26W/27W from 11N southward.
Scattered showers are within 100 nm east of the wave.

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 46W from 14N southward.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are present
from 12N-15N between 40W-46W east of the wave axis.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 80W from 09N-20N. The
upper level trough that passes through the Mona Passage, into the
central Caribbean Sea, toward NE Nicaragua is cutting across the
area of the tropical wave. No significant precipitation is present
in the vicinity of the wave. However, scattered showers are noted
near the coast of Panama N of 11N due to the proximity of the
monsoon trough.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains inland in Africa. The ITCZ passes
through the coastal areas of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 05N26W.
The ITCZ resumes west of the tropical wave 05N30W to 08N43W and
from 11N52W to 13N59W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 15N southward between 52W and 60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from 30N88W to 24N99W. This front will
continue to move southeast across the basin An east-to-west
oriented surface trough is about 90 nm to the south of the front,
between 87W and 88W. Scattered moderate convection are to the
north and south of the line that runs from the Florida Big Bend
near 30N88W to 25N96W.

Strong winds and frequent gusts to gale force are expected in the
wake of the front over the northwest Gulf tonight into Sat. The
front will stall from near Fort Myers Florida to 22N94W to near
Puerto Veracruz Mexico by late Sat. The front will weaken as it
lifts northward through Sun, ahead of another front expected to
move into the northwest Gulf by Mon. Winds to gale force will
follow this stronger front as it reaches from near Pensacola
Florida to Tampico Mexico by late Mon. Strong to near- storm
force gales are also possible off Veracruz by late Tue as the
front reaches from near Tampa Florida to Coatzacoalcos Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough is moving into the area that passes through
the SE Bahamas, to the Mona Passage, to 15N75W in the central
Caribbean Sea, to NE Nicaragua. Scattered showers are along the
coast of Nicaragua from 11N to 15N between 82W and 83W.

A surface trough is along 64W/65W from 18N southward. Upper level
SW wind flow is moving through the area of the surface trough.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong are from 12N to 18N between
58W and 61W.

Weak surface ridge north of the area will maintain gentle to
moderate trade winds across the region through early weekend.
Winds will increase east of the Leeward Islands as the ridge
builds east. Winds and seas increase slightly across the region
early next week as a high pressure builds north of the Bahamas.
Looking ahead, a cold front will bring fresh N winds and seas to
9 ft will into the Yucatan Channel by mid week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, covers the Atlantic
Ocean from 20N northward between 60W and 70W. A north-to-south
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are from 22N to
26N between 58W and 64W. Isolated moderate showers are elsewhere
from 20N northward between 53W and 70W.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Atlantic Ocean from 17N
northward between Africa and 57W. A 1028 mb high pressure center
is near 33N33W. A 1027 mb high pressure center is near 33N49W.

The 67W/68W surface trough will maintain generally gentle to
light winds across the basin, with 3 to 5 ft NE swell in open
waters persisting through Saturday. A weak cold front will move
off northeast Florida late today, and then become diffuse across
the Bahamas by Sunday. A second cold front will move off northeast
Florida by early next week, followed by fresh northerly winds and
seas to 9 feet in northerly swell N of 27N.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT/Torres
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