[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091803
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
103 PM EST Fri Nov 9 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...DEVELOPING GALE in the Gulf of Mexico...

The forecast, starting at 18 hours into the future, starting
Friday night/Saturday morning, and ending on Saturday morning/
noon, at the 24 hour time, consists of a cold front from 29N83W to
24N96W to 21N97W. N of 26N W of 92.5W NE winds 20 to 30 knots
with frequent gusts to gale force. The sea heights will range from
8 feet to 10 feet. Please read the HIGH SEAS FORECAST, listed
under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 26W/27W from 12N southward.
ITCZ-related rainshowers are nearby.

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 45W from 15N southward. ITCZ-
related rainshowers are nearby.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 79W/80W from 20N
southward. The upper level trough that passes through the Mona
Passage, into the central Caribbean Sea, toward NE Nicaragua is
cutting across the area of the tropical wave. It is not easy to
find precipitation that just is related only to the tropical wave.
The rainshowers near Nicaragua are probably more related to the
upper level trough.

A SW Gulf of Mexico tropical wave is along 95W/96W from 21N
southward. Rainshowers are possible from 20N southward from 93W
westward.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains inland in Africa. The ITCZ passes
through the coastal areas of Sierra Leone near 08N13W, to 07N20W
06N26W 04N32W 08N44W, and then from 11N47W to 11N52W. Disorganized
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from
10N southward between 14W and 38W, and from 10N to 15N between 40W
and 60W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 05N to
10N between 36W and 54W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front/warm front extends from the Atlantic Ocean,
into southern Georgia, across southern Alabama, to a 1014 mb SE
Mississippi low pressure center. A cold front continues from the
low pressure center, through south central Louisiana, to the coast
of the Deep South of Texas, into northern Mexico and NW Mexico.
An east-to-west oriented surface trough is about 120 nm to the
south of the stationary/warm front, between 80W and 90W. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are to the north
of the line that runs from the Florida Big Bend near 30N84W, to
27N90W, to the coast of Mexico near 24N98W.

The current cold front will bring strong winds and frequent gusts
to gale force in the northwest Gulf of Mexico from tonight into
Saturday. The front will reach from Panama City Florida to La
Pesca in northeast Mexico this evening, before stalling from Fort
Myers Florida to 22N94W to Puerto Veracruz Mexico late on
Saturday. The front will weaken as it moves northward through
Sunday. The first cold front will be ahead of a second cold front,
which is expected to move into the northwest Gulf of Mexico on
Monday. The wind speeds will reach gale force, following this
stronger front, as it reaches from Pensacola Florida to Tampico
Mexico by late Monday. Strong to near-storm force gales are
possible off Veracruz in Mexico by late Tuesday, as the front
reaches from Tampa Florida to Coatzacoalcos Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough is moving into the area that passes through
the SE Bahamas, to the Mona Passage, to 15N75W in the central
Caribbean Sea, to NE Nicaragua. Isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers are in the waters and inland in Nicaragua from
11N to 17N between 79W and 86W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are
between 70W and 80W.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that
ended at 13/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 1.22 in
Guadeloupe, 0.37 in St.Thomas of the U.S. Virgin Islands, 0.09 in
Kingston in Jamaica, and 0.07 in Nassau in the Bahamas.

A surface trough is along 64W/65W from 19N southward. Upper level
SW wind flow is moving through the area of the surface trough.
Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 10N to
20N between 58W and 70W.

A weak surface ridge, that is to the north of the area, will
maintain gentle to moderate trade winds across the region through
today. The wind speeds will start to increase slightly to the
east of the Leeward Islands as the ridge builds eastward. The wind
speeds and the sea heights increase slightly across the region
early next week as high pressure builds to the north of the
Bahamas. A cold front will bring fresh N winds and sea heights to
9 feet will into the Yucatan Channel by the middle of the next
week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, covers the Atlantic
Ocean from 20N northward between 60W and 70W. A north-to-south
oriented surface trough is along 67W/68W from 20N northward.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from
23N to 26N between 58W and 64W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are
elsewhere from 20N northward between 53W and 70W.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Atlantic Ocean from 17N
northward between Africa and 57W. A 1028 mb high pressure center
is near 33N33W. A 1027 mb high pressure center is near 33N49W.

The 67W/68W surface trough will maintain generally gentle to
light winds across the basin, with 3 to 5 ft NE swell in open
waters persisting through Saturday. A weak cold front will move
off northeast Florida late today, and then become diffuse across
the Bahamas by Sunday. A second cold front will move off northeast
Florida by early next week, followed by fresh northerly winds and
seas to 9 feet in northerly swell N of 27N.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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