[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091206
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
706 AM EST Fri Nov 9 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gulf of Mexico Gale...

The forecast, starting at 24 hours into the future, starting
friday night/saturday morning, and ending on saturday afternoon,
at the 36 hour time, consists of a cold front from 29N83W to
24N96W to 21N97W. N of 26N W of 92.5W NE winds 20 to 30 knots
with frequent gusts to gale force. The sea heights will range from
8 feet to 10 feet. Please read the HIGH SEAS FORECAST, listed
under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 25W/26W from 12N southward.
ITCZ-related rainshowers are nearby.

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 48W/49W from 14N southward.
ITCZ-related rainshowers are nearby.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 78W/79W from 20N southward.
Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 17N southward, between 78W
and 85W, moving into Nicaragua. It is possible that these
rainshowers also are related to trade wind flow.

A SW Gulf of Mexico tropical wave is along 94W/95W from 21N
southward. Rainshowers are possible from 20N southward between 92W
and 96W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon passes through the coastal border areas of Guinea and
Sierra Leone near 09N13W, to 06N18W. The ITCZ continues from
06N18W to 05N24W 05N29W 04N36W 08N45W and 08N58W.

xtends
from W Africa near 08N12W to 06N17W. The ITCZ extends from that
point to 05N23W. The ITCZ resumes W of a tropical wave near 05N27W
to 08N43W. The ITCZ resumes west of another tropical wave near
09N49W to 08N58W. Besides the convection associated with the
tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is mostly N of the
ITCZ from 08N-14N between 30W-40W and from 10N-13N between 50W-
53W. This convection is mostly due, however, to upper level
diffluence.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from the Florida Panhandle to SE Texas
along 28N. Scattered showers are present along the NE Gulf and
the Florida Panhandle. The remainder of the Gulf of Mexico is
under gentle to moderate southeast to south flow with mostly fair
weather.

A cold front will move into the northwest Gulf this
morning, followed by strong winds and frequent gusts to gale force
over the northwest Gulf tonight into Sat. The front will reach
from near Panama City Florida to La Pesca in northeast Mexico this
evening, before stalling from near Fort Myers Florida to 22N94W
to near Puerto Veracruz Mexico late Sat. The front will weaken as
it lifts northward through Sun, ahead of another front expected to
move into the northwest Gulf Mon. Winds to gale force will follow
this stronger front as it reaches from near Pensacola Florida to
Tampico Mexico by late Mon. Strong to near-storm force gales are
possible off Veracruz by late Tue as the front reaches from near
Tampa Florida to Coatzacoalcos Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is present over the Caribbean Sea. Refer to the
tropical wave section above for details. A surface trough is along
66W from 11N-17N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is over the Leeward Islands N of 16N between 60W-65W.
Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the remainder of the
trough.

In the upper-levels, a trough axis extends from the Windward
Passage to the coast of Colombia. Significant upper-level
moisture is over the E Caribbean E of the trough axis, while
strong subsidence is over the W Caribbean allowing for drier
and more stable air mass to filter in from the west.

Weak ridging north of the area will maintain gentle
to moderate trade winds across the region through today. Winds
will start to increase slightly east of the Leeward Islands as the
ridge builds east. Winds and seas increase slightly across the
region early next week as a high pressure builds north of the
Bahamas. Looking ahead, a cold front will bring fresh N winds and
seas to 9 ft will into the Yucatan Channel by mid week.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Prefrontal widely scattered moderate convection is over the W
Atlantic N of 30N W of 70W. Further E, a surface trough is over
the W Atlantic from 22N71W to 31N68W. Scattered showers are seen
200 nm east of the trough axis N of 27N. A large 1028 mb high is
centered over the central Atlantic near 33N34W. An upper-level
low is centered over the W Atlantic near 26N65W enhancing the
upper level diffluence to the southeast. Scattered moderate
convection is present E of the low from 20N-27N between 55W-61W.

A surface trough extending north of Hispaniola along
72W will maintain generally gentle to light winds across the
basin with 3 to 5 ft NE swell in open waters persisting through
Sat. A weak cold front will move off northeast Florida late today
then become diffuse over the Bahamas by Sun. Another cold front
will move off northeast Florida by early next week followed by
fresh northerly winds and seas to 9 ft in northerly swell N of
27N.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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