[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090601
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
101 AM EST Fri Nov 9 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gulf of Mexico Gale...

The stationary front currently extending across the northern Gulf
coastline, will transition into a cold front and move across the
Gulf waters through the weekend. The front will extend from 28N83W
to 24N96W to 21N97W by Sat. This feature will enhance fresh to
strong northerly winds and building seas in the wake of the front,
with frequent gusts to gale force. Refer to the High Seas Forecast
product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is near 25W from 01N-11N, moving W at
around 10-15 kts. This tropical wave is noticeable in model
diagnostics at 700 mb and SSMI TPW imagery with abundant moisture
content in its environment. Scattered moderate convection is
present from 05N-09N between 23W-26W of the wave axis.

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis from 04N48W to 14N46W,
moving W at 10 kt. A 700 mb trough is noticeable with this high
amplitude wave. SSMI TPC imagery shows a moisture area associated
with this wave. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 09N-13N
between 43W-49W. Scattered showers are within 100 nm east of the
wave.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 77W from 08N-20N, moving W at
10-15 kt. No significant convection is noticeable in the vicinity
of the wave.

A Bay of Campeche tropical wave is along 95W from 09N-20N, moving
W at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are within 180 nm east of the
wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon extends from W Africa near 08N12W to 06N17W. The ITCZ
extends from that point to 05N23W. The ITCZ resumes W of a
tropical wave near 05N27W to 08N43W. The ITCZ resumes west of
another tropical wave near 09N49W to 08N58W. Besides the
convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate
convection is mostly N of the ITCZ from 08N-14N between 30W-40W
and from 10N-13N between 50W-53W. This convection is mostly due,
however, to upper level diffluence.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from the Florida Panhandle to SE Texas
along 28N. Scattered showers are present along the NE Gulf and
the Florida Panhandle. The remainder of the Gulf of Mexico is
under gentle to moderate southeast to south flow with mostly fair
weather.

The stationary front currently extending across the northern Gulf
coastline will transition into a cold front and move into the
northwest Gulf waters today, followed by strong winds and frequent
gusts to gale force tonight into Sat. The front will reach from
near Panama City Florida to La Pesca in northeast Mexico this
evening, before stalling from near Fort Myers Florida to 22N94W to
near Puerto Veracruz Mexico late Sat. The front will weaken as it
lifts northward through Sun, ahead of another front expected to
move into the northwest Gulf. Winds to gale force will follow this
stronger front as it reaches from near Pensacola Florida to
Tampico Mexico by late Mon. Strong to near storm force gales are
possible off Veracruz by late Tue as the front reaches from near
Tampa Florida to Coatzacoalcos Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is present over the Caribbean Sea. Refer to the
tropical wave section above for details. A surface trough is along
66W from 11N-17N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is over the Leeward Islands N of 16N between 60W-65W.
Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the remainder of the
trough.

In the upper-levels, a trough axis extends from the Windward
Passage to the coast of Colombia. Significant upper-level
moisture is over the E Caribbean E of the trough axis, while
strong subsidence is over the W Caribbean allowing for drier
and more stable air mass to filter in from the west.

The surface trough north of Hispaniola along roughly 71W will
persist through the next several days, keeping ridging north of
the area fairly weak. This will maintain generally gentle to
moderate trade winds over the Caribbean and tropical north
Atlantic into Fri. Winds and seas will increase slightly east of
the Leeward Islands as the ridge builds east. Winds and seas
increase slightly across the region early next week as a high
pressure builds north of the Bahamas. Looking ahead, a cold front
will bring fresh N winds and seas to 9 ft will into the Yucatan
Channel by mid week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Prefrontal widely scattered moderate convection is over the W
Atlantic N of 30N W of 70W. Further E, a surface trough is over
the W Atlantic from 22N71W to 31N68W. Scattered showers are seen
200 nm east of the trough axis N of 27N. A large 1028 mb high is
centered over the central Atlantic near 33N34W. An upper-level
low is centered over the W Atlantic near 26N65W enhancing the
upper level diffluence to the southeast. Scattered moderate
convection is present E of the low from 20N-27N between 55W-61W.

A surface trough extending north of Hispaniola along 72W will
maintain generally gentle to light winds across the basin with 3
to 5 ft NE swell in open waters persisting through Sat. A weak
cold front will move off northeast Florida by late Fri then become
diffuse over the Bahamas by Sun. Another cold front will move off
northeast Florida by early next week followed by fresh northerly
winds and seas to 9 ft in northerly swell N of 27N.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Torres
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