[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090004
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
704 PM EST Thu Nov 8 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gulf of Mexico Gale...

A cold front will extend over the Gulf of Mexico from 30N88W to
27N97W by Friday evening. This feature will enhance winds reaching
gale-force in the wake of the front, affecting the northwest Gulf
waters. Refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO
headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis from 11N23W to 02N26W,
moving W at 10 kt. This wave is noticeable in model diagnostics
at 700 mb and SSMI TPW imagery. Abundant moisture is also in its
environment. Scattered showers are within 90 nm to the east of the
wave.

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis from 13N46W to 04N47W,
moving W at 10 kt. SSMI TPW imagery shows a moisture area
associated with this wave. A 700 mb trough is also noted. Isolated
moderate convection is from 11N-13N between 43W-50W. Scattered
showers are within 90 nm of the remainder of the wave.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 77W from 20N-09N, moving W at
10-15 kt. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the wave axis over
N Colombia.

A Bay of Campeche tropical wave is along 94W from 20N-09N, moving
W at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon extends from W Africa near 10N14W to 07N18W. The ITCZ
extends from that point to 06N23W. The ITCZ resumes W of a
tropical wave near 06N26W to 08N46W. The ITCZ resumes west of
another tropical wave near 08N49W to 08N59W. Besides the
convection and showers associated with the tropical waves,
scattered moderate convection is mostly N of the ITCZ from 07N-
13N between 32W-43W and from 11N-14N between 50W-55W. This
convection is mostly due, however, to upper level diffluence.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from the Florida Panhandle to SE Texas
along 28N. Scattered moderate convection is over the NE Gulf and
the Florida Panhandle from 28N-29N between 83W-88W. Scattered
showers are elsewhere N of 26N. The remainder of the Gulf of
Mexico is under gentle to moderate southeast to south flow with
mostly fair weather.

High pressure ridging extending from the Atlantic to the central
Gulf will support gentle to moderate winds over the basin through
tonight. The stationary front currently extending across the
northern Gulf coastline will transition into a cold front and move
across the Gulf waters through the weekend. Fresh to strong
northerly winds and building seas are expected in the wake of the
front, with frequent gusts to gale force. The front will extend
from 28N83W to 24N96W to 21N97W by Sat. A low pressure system will
develop in the northwest Gulf by Sun, with stationary front
extending from the low to 18N95W, and a warm front from the low
eastward to 26N90W. The cold front will become weak and extend
across the eastern Gulf from 25N81W to 24N85W. This front will
continue weakening through early next week. Looking ahead, a
secondary front will move off the Texas coast by late Mon,
possibly followed by strong gales over the western Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is present over the Caribbean Sea. Refer to the
tropical wave section above for details. A surface trough is along
66W from 10N-17N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is over the Leeward Islands N of 14N between 60W-66W.
Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the remainder of the
trough.

In the upper-levels, a trough axis extends from the Windward
Passage to the coast of Colombia. Significant upper-level
moisture is over the E Caribbean E of the trough axis, while
strong subsidence is over the W Caribbean W of the axis.

The surface trough north of Hispaniola along roughly 72W will
persist through the next several days, keeping ridging north of
the area fairly weak. This will maintain generally light to
moderate trade winds over the Caribbean and tropical north
Atlantic into Fri. Winds and seas will increase slightly starting
Sat over the tropical north Atlantic and eastern Caribbean, and by
Sun across the south-central Caribbean, in the Windward Passage,
and just south of Hispaniola, as the trough weakens and high
pressure builds north of the region.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Prefrontal widely scattered moderate convection is over the W
Atlantic N of 30N W of 70W. Further E, a surface trough is over
the W Atlantic from 28N65W to 29N66W. Scattered showers are seen
200 nm east of the trough axis N of 20N. A large 1028 mb high is
centered over the central Atlantic near 34N35W. An upper-level low
is centered over the W Atlantic near 26N65W. Scattered moderate
convection is E of the low from 21N-27N between 55W-63W.

A trough extending north of Hispaniola along roughly 69W will
maintain generally gentle to light winds across the basin with 3
to 5 ft NE swell in open waters persisting through mid week. A
cold front will move off the NE Florida coast Fri night then stall
from near Bermuda to central Florida by late Sat. The front will
lift northward early next week ahead of another front approaching
the region.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Torres
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