[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
104 AM EST Thu Nov 8 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gulf of Mexico Cold Front in 48 hours...

A cold front will extend from 29N90W to 30N88W by Friday evening.
This feature will enhance winds reaching gale-force in the wake
of the front, affecting the northwest Gulf waters. Refer to the
High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave with axis extending from 12N17W to
04N20W. This wave is noticeable in model diagnostics at 700 mb
and TPW imagery depicts abundant moisture in its environment. At
this time, scattered moderate convection are noted from 06N-18N
90 nm on either side of the wave.

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis from 05N49W to 15N46W,
moving W at 10-15 kt. SSMI TPW imagery shows a moisture area
associated with this wave. A 700 mb trough is also noted.
Scattered moderate convection is present in the vicinity of the
wave.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 72W from 09N-20N, moving W at
10-15 kt. No significant shower activity is noted with this wave
at this time. Also, TPW shows dry conditions are present in the
vicinity of the wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 84W from 08N-19N, moving W
at 10kt. No significant shower activity is noted with this wave
at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon extends from W Africa near 07N13W to 07N18W. The ITCZ
continues from 07N20W to 07N32W to 08N45W. The ITCZ resumes west
of the tropical wave near 09N51W to 09N60W. Scattered showers
are present near the coast of W Africa from 03N-07N between 11W-
17W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted to the
north of the boundary from 08N-13N between 38W-43W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from southern Georgia to E Texas along
30N. Scattered moderate convection is along the northern Gulf
coast N of 29N between 84W-93W. The remainder of the Gulf of
Mexico is under gentle to moderate south to southeast flow with
mostly benign weather.

High pressure ridging extending from the Atlantic to the central
Gulf will support gentle to moderate winds over the basin through
Thu night. A strong cold front will reach the coast of Texas Fri
morning, and move across the NW Gulf through Fri afternoon. Fresh
to strong northerly winds and building seas are expected in the
wake of the front, possibly with gusts to gale force. It is
forecast to reach from northern Florida to near Tampico, Mexico by
Fri night, and from near Sarasota, Florida to 25N90W and to near
Veracruz early Sat morning, then become stationary from near Fort
Myers to near 24N90W to the Bay of Campeche by Sat evening.
Scattered moderate convection is likely to precede the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are present over the Caribbean Sea. Refer to
the tropical wave section above for details. A surface trough is
along 63W from 10N- 18N, moving W at 10 kt. No significant shower
activity is noted in the vicinity of this wave at this time. A
10-15 kt easterly surface winds are noted.

In the upper-levels, a trough axis extends from E Hispaniola to
the coast of Colombia. Significant upper-level moisture is over
the E Caribbean E of the trough axis producing scattered high and
mid level clouds with a few isolated showers north of 13N.

The trough north of Hispaniola along roughly 70W will persist
through the next several days, keeping ridging north of the area
farily weak. This will maintain generally light to moderate trade
winds over the Caribbean and tropical north Atlantic into Fri.
Winds and seas will increase slightly starting Sat over the
eastern Caribbean, and by Sun across the south-central Caribbean,
in the Windward Passage, and just south of Hispaniola as the
trough weakens and high pressure builds north of the region.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is over the W Atlantic from 22N67W to 28N65W.
Scattered showers are seen 200 nm east of the trough axis from N
of 26N. A large 1028 mb high is centered over the central
Atlantic near 34N40W. An upper-level low is centered over the W
Atlantic near 24N64W. Scattered moderate convection is E of the
low from 20N-26N between 54W-62W.

A trough extending north of Hispaniola along roughly 70W will
maintain generally gentle to light winds across the basin with 3
to 5 ft NE swell in open waters persisting through mid week. A
cold front will move off the NE Florida coast Fri night then stall
from near Bermuda to central Florida by late Sat. The front will
lift northward early next week ahead of another front approaching
the region.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MTorres
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