[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080000
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Wed Nov 7 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gulf of Mexico Cold Front in 48 hours...

A cold front will extend from 31N87W to 29N90W to 26N97W by
Friday evening. This feature will enhance winds reaching gale-
force in the wake of the front, affecting the northwest Gulf
waters. Refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO
headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has been introduced to this
analysis, with axis extending from 12N17W to 04N20W. This wave is
noticeable in model diagnostics at 700 mb and TPW imagery depicts
abundant moisture in its environment. At this time, scattered
showers are noted from 04N-11N and east of 23W.

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 47W from 05N-
15N, moving W at 10-15 kt. SSMI TPW imagery shows a moisture area
associated with this wave. A 700 mb trough is also noted.
Scattered moderate convection is from 10N-14N between 39W-47W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 71W from 09N-19N, moving W at
10-15 kt. No significant shower activity is noted with this wave
at this time. Also, TPW shows dry conditions are present in the
vicinity of the wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 84W from 08N-19N, moving W
at 10kt. No significant shower activity is noted with this wave
at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon extends from W Africa near 07N12W to 06N21W. The ITCZ
continues from 06N21W to 06N35W to 09N44W. The ITCZ continues W
of a tropical wave near 10N47W to 11N58W. Scattered moderate
convection is along the coast of W Africa from 02N-10N between
07W-22W. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N-13N between
48W-53W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from southern Georgia to E Texas along
31N. Isolated moderate convection is N of 28N between 83W-93W.
The remainder of the Gulf of Mexico has mostly fair weather. 10-15
KT SE to S surface flow is over the Gulf.

High pressure ridging extending from the Atlantic to the central
Gulf will support gentle to moderate winds over the basin through
Thu night. A strong cold front will reach the coast of Texas Fri
morning. The front will reach from near Apalachicola to near
26N90W and to inland northeastern Mexico Fri evening, from near
Sarasota, Florida to 25N90W and to near Veracruz early Sat, then
become stationary from near Fort Myers to near 24N90W to the Bay
of Campeche by Sat evening. Strong NW to N winds and building seas
are expected behind this front. Winds could reach minimal gale
force Fri night through Sat night over the western Gulf. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are likely to precede the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are over the Caribbean Sea. Refer to the
section above for details. A surface trough is along 61W from
09N- 17N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers are from 10N-20N
between 55W- 65W. 10-15 kt easterly surface winds are noted.

In the upper-levels, a trough axis extends from E Hispaniola to E
Panama. Significant upper-level moisture is over the E Caribbean
E of the trough axis producing scattered high clouds.

The combination of an upper trough over the central Caribbean and
a tropical wave moving across the eastern Caribbean will lead to
more scattered showers and thunderstorms over the northeastern
Caribbean through early Thu. Shower and thunderstorm activity may
produce gusty winds.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is over the W Atlantic from 28N65W to 21N66W.
Isolated showers are over the W Atlantic from N of 25N and W of
61W-66W. A large 1027 mb high is centered over the central
Atlantic near 36N44W. An upper-level low is centered over the W
Atlantic near 25N63W. Isolated moderate convection is E of the low
from 22N-25N between 49W-62W.

High pressure ridge extending from Bermuda to central Florida
will retreat eastward during the next few days in response to cold
fronts that will move off the United States eastern seaboard. The
first cold front is expected to be rather weak as it approaches
the far northwest section of the area before moving back north as
a warm front by late today. The second cold front is expected to
quickly move across the northwestern waters Fri night through Sat
before it approaches Bermuda and extend to near 31N72W and
stationary to near Port Canaveral by late Sat night. Strong high
pressure in the wake of the front will usher in fresh to strong
northeast winds accompanied by building seas.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

Formosa/ERA/MMT
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net