[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081206
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
706 AM EST Thu Nov 8 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gulf of Mexico Gale...

A cold front will extend over the Gulf of Mexico from 29N90W to
30N88W by Friday evening. This feature will enhance winds reaching
gale-force in the wake of the front, affecting the northwest Gulf
waters. Refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO
headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis from 12N19W to 04N20W,
moving W at 10 kt. This wave is noticeable in model diagnostics
at 700 mb and SSMI TPW imagery. Abundant moisture is also in its
environment. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the wave.

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis from 14N47W to 05N49W,
moving W at 10-15 kt. SSMI TPW imagery shows a moisture area
associated with this wave. A 700 mb trough is also noted.
Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the wave.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 72W from 20N-09N, moving W at
10-15 kt. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the wave axis over
N Colombi9a and NW Venezuela.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 85W from 20N-08N, moving W
at 10 kt. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the wave,
especially over Honduras.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon extends from W Africa near 08N13W to 07N18W. The ITCZ
extends from 07N21W to 06N30W to 08N47W. The ITCZ resumes west of
a tropical wave near 09N50W to 09N60W. Besides the showers
associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is mostly N of the ITCZ from 06N-13N between
33W-42W. This convection is mostly due, however, to upper level
diffluence.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from the Florida Panhandle to E Texas
along 30N. Scattered moderate convection is along the northern
Gulf coast N of 29N between 84W-93W. The remainder of the Gulf of
Mexico is under gentle to moderate south to southeast flow with
mostly benign weather.

High pressure ridging extending from the Atlantic to
the central Gulf will support gentle to moderate winds over the
basin through Thu night. A strong cold front will reach the
coast of Texas Fri morning, and move across the NW Gulf through
Fri afternoon. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas
are expected in the wake of the front, with frequent gusts to
gale force. The front is forecast to reach from the Florida Big
Bend area to near Tampico, Mexico by Fri night, and from near
Sarasota, Florida to 25N90W and to near Veracruz early Sat
morning, become stationary from near Fort Myers to near 24N90W to
the Bay of Campeche by late Sat, before lifting north and
dissipating Sun. Looking ahead, a second stronger front will move
off the Texas coast late Mon, possibly followed by strong gales
over the western Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are present over the Caribbean Sea. Refer to
the tropical wave section above for details. A surface trough is
along 64W from 10N-19N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is over the Leeward Islands from 18N-21N between 62W-
65W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the remainder of the
trough.

In the upper-levels, a trough axis extends from E Hispaniola to
the coast of Colombia. Significant upper-level moisture is over
the E Caribbean E of the trough axis, while strong subsidence is
over the W Caribbean W of the axis.

The surface trough north of Hispaniola along roughly 67W will
persist through the next several days, keeping ridging north of
the area fairly weak. This will maintain generally light to
moderate trade winds over the Caribbean and tropical north
Atlantic into Fri. Winds and seas will increase slightly starting
Sat over the tropical north Atlantic and eastern Caribbean, and by
Sun across the south-central Caribbean, in the Windward Passage,
and just south of Hispaniola, as the trough weakens and high
pressure builds north of the region.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Prefrontal widely scattered moderate convection is over the W
Atlantic N of 28N W of 75W. Further E, a surface trough is over
the W Atlantic from 29N66W to 22N68W. Scattered showers are seen
200 nm east of the trough axis N of 26N. A large 1027 mb high is
centered over the central Atlantic near 35N39W. An upper-level low
is centered over the W Atlantic near 25N64W. Scattered moderate
convection is E of the low from 22N-27N between 57W-64W.

A trough extending north of Hispaniola along roughly 67W will
maintain generally gentle to light winds across the basin with 3
to 5 ft NE swell in open waters persisting through mid week. A
cold front will move off the NE Florida coast Fri night then stall
from near Bermuda to central Florida by late Sat. The front will
lift northward early next week ahead of another front approaching
the region.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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