[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070515
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 AM EST Wed Nov 7 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 41W/42W from 14N
southward. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 06N to 13N
between 40W and 44W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 67W from the western part
of Puerto Rico southward. An upper level trough passes through
the Mona Passage to eastern Panama. Upper level cyclonic wind
flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 82W eastward. Isolated moderate
rainshowers are between 60W and 74W. It is not easy to see that
much of the isolated rainshowers are exactly related to just the
tropical wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 80W/81W from 19N southward.
Disorganized isolated moderate rainshowers are from 12N to 18N
between the Windward Passage and Central America in broad trade
wind flow.

A surface trough is along 56W/57W from 09N to 17N. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 10N to
20N between 50W and 58W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Sierra Leone
near 09N13W to 06N23W. The ITCZ continues from 06N23W to 04N31W
to 05N37W. Scattered strong rainshowers are from 05N to 09N
between 16W and 19W, and from 08N to 10N between 32W and 34W.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from
01N to 04N between 03W and 05W. Isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 15N southward from 60W
eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front-to-warm front passes through southern Georgia,
to the Florida Panhandle, becoming warm from SW Alabama, across
southern Louisiana, into north central Texas. Isolated moderate to
locally strong rainshowers are from 27N northward between 80W and
94W.

An Atlantic Ocean-to-central Gulf of Mexico surface ridge will
support gentle to moderate winds in the Gulf of Mexico through
Thursday night. A strong cold front will move into the NW Gulf on
Friday morning, and then become stationary from Fort Myers to near
24N90W to the Bay of Campeche by Saturday evening. Strong winds
and building seas are expected behind this front. It is possible
that NW to N winds may reach minimal gale force, from late Friday
night through Saturday night, in the far western Gulf of Mexico S
of 26N. It is likely that scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms
will precede the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that
ended at 07/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 1.28 in
Guadeloupe, and 0.07 in Curacao, and 0.01 in Bermuda.

An upper level trough extends from a 25N63W Atlantic Ocean
cyclonic circulation center, southwestward, through the Mona
Passage, into the central Caribbean Sea, to eastern Panama.
Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from
Central America eastward. Comparatively drier air in subsidence
is within 300 nm to 400 nm, on the western side of the trough.
Isolated moderate rainshowers are between 60W and 74W.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N between 74W in northern
Colombia, through eastern Panama, beyond southern Costa Rica,
into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Rainshowers are possible from
12N southward from 74W westward.

Central Atlantic Ocean surface high pressure will weaken as it
shifts SE during the next few days. Generally light to moderate
trade winds are expected for the next several days. A surface
trough, currently just E of the Windward Islands, will produce
rainshowers and thunderstorms, some possibly with gusty winds,
across much of the NE Caribbean Sea through Thursday. NE swell
in the tropical Atlantic Ocean waters will be replaced by a new
set of NE swell from Friday night through Sunday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front is inland, in the southeastern U.S.A., from
South Carolina to Georgia. Upper level SW wind flow, and broken
to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate rainshowers,
are to the west and northwest of the line that passes through
Bermuda, to 27N70W, to Cuba near 21N76W.

An upper level trough extends from a 25N63W Atlantic Ocean
cyclonic circulation center, southwestward, through the Mona
Passage, into the central Caribbean Sea, to eastern Panama.
Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from
Central America eastward. A surface trough is along 59W/60W
from 20N to 27N. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is within
300 nm to 400 nm, on the western side of the trough. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 25N to
27N between 57W and 62W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are
elsewhere from 20N northward from 50W westward.

A Bermuda-to-central Florida surface ridge will retreat eastward,
in response to cold fronts that will move off the U.S.A. eastern
seaboard, one front on Wednesday and a second front on Saturday.
The second cold front is expected to move across the NW section of
the area on Saturday and Saturday night, followed by fresh to
strong NE winds and building seas. Gentle to moderate winds will
continue across the remainder of the forecast waters through
Sunday night. NE long period swell in the eastern waters will
subside through Thursday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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