[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 PM EST Tue Nov 6 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 41W from 15N southward.
Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 07N to 13N between 40W and
45W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 65W/66W from Puerto Rico
southward. An upper level trough passes through the Mona Passage
to Panama. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea
from 82W eastward. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 14N to
20N between 60W and 73W. It is not easy to see that much of the
isolated rainshowers are exactly related to just the tropical
wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 79W/80W from 19N southward.
Disorganized isolated moderate rainshowers are from 12N to 18N
between 75W and Central America in broad trade wind flow.

A surface trough is along 55W from 09N to 18N. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 12N to 19N
between 50W and 58W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Sierra Leone
near 09N13W to 06N23W. The ITCZ continues from 06N23W to 05N31W
07N39W 08N44W and 10N55W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 14N southward from 60W
eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from eastern Tennessee to Meridian
Mississippi to Alexandria Louisiana to College Station Texas,
where it becomes a stationary front that heads west into west
Texas. South of the front, strong thunderstorms are occurring over
portions of the north Gulf Coast. A broken to nearly continuous
line of thunderstorms extends to 30 nm either side of a line from
30N86.5W to 29.5N88W to 29N90W to 29N91.5W. The strongest
thunderstorms are occurring from 29N-30N between 87W-89W.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also seen from 28N-29N
between between 91.5W-95W. Another line of showers and
thunderstorms is parallel to this line but located over land in
between this line and the cold front. Isolated showers are
possible elsewhere north of 26N. Broad upper level W wind flow
spans the entire area. An upper level anticyclonic circulation
center is inland over western Guatemala and southern Mexico. A
surface ridge extends from Bermuda, across the Florida Peninsula
and to the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

A surface ridge from the Atlantic Ocean into the Gulf of Mexico
will support gentle to moderate winds over the basin through Thu
night. The next cold front will move over the NW Gulf by Fri
morning, then eventually stall from S Florida to the Bay of
Campeche by Sat night. Strong winds and building seas are expected
behind this front. NW to N winds could reach minimal gale force
late Fri night through Sat night over the far western Gulf S of
26N. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely to precede the
front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that
ended at 06/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 1.87 in San
Juan Puerto Rico.

An upper level trough extends from a 26N59W Atlantic Ocean
cyclonic circulation center southwestward over Puerto Rico and the
Dominican Republic through the central Caribbean to the NE coast
of Colombia. Broad mid to upper level cyclonic wind flow covers
the Caribbean Sea from 78W eastward. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are over the eastern Caribbean Sea north of
14N and east of 73W, including Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and
northern Leeward Islands.

The surface ridge that extends from Bermuda to Florida to the
south-central Gulf, also influences the weather in the northwest
Caribbean, where the weather is relatively quiet west of 80W.

The east Pacific monsoon trough, which goes through Panama, is
inducing only isolated showers at this time south of 10N in the
far SW Caribbean.

High pres over the central Atlc will weaken as it
shifts SE during the next few days. Accordingly, light to moderate
trades are expected for the next several days. A surface trough
currently just E of the Windward Islands will produce showers and
thunderstorms, some possibly with gusty winds, over much of the NE
Caribbean through Thu. NE swell over the tropical Atlantic waters
will subside through Thu.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough just east of the Lesser Antilles extends from
17N55W to 13N57W to 09N58W, and this trough is moving slowly
westward. A large area of numerous moderate with embedded isolated
strong convection extends from 10N-17N between 51W-59W. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are elsewhere from 09N-18N
between 50W-61W. Satellite imagery shows a small area of moderate
to strong convection over Trinidad.

An upper level trough extends from a 26N59W Atlantic Ocean
cyclonic circulation center southwestward to Puerto Rico and the
Dominican Republic. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the
area that is from 20N northward between 50W-65W. A surface trough
extends from 28N58W to 19N60W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are seen from 19N-28N between 50W-62W.

Upper level SW wind flow, and broken to overcast multilayered
clouds along with scattered moderate rainshowers, are to the
northwest of a line that passes through 32N65W to the NW Bahamas.
Isolated showers are elsewhere north of 25N and west of 69W. A
surface ridge influences the weather to the south and east of that
area, with mainly quiet weather from 24N-29N between 62W-69W.
High pressure over the north-central Atlantic also extends a ridge
over the eastern subtropical Atlantic, with relatively quiet
weather north of 19N and east of 45W.

High pressure ridge extending WSW from near Bermuda
to Florida will retreat E in response to cold fronts moving off
the E coast of the United States Wed and Sat. The second cold
front is expected to move across the NW section of the area Sat
and Sat night, followed by fresh to strong NE winds and building
seas. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds will continue over the
remainder of the forecast waters through Sun night. NE long
period swell over the eastern waters will subside through Thu.


For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
hagen/cm/mt
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