[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061732
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1232 PM EST Tue Nov 6 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 39/40W from 02N-15N
moving west at 5-10 kt. A 700 mb trough is depicted by model
guidance ahead of the wave axis, close to 43W. Total Precipitable
Water imagery shows enhanced moisture accompanying the tropical
wave. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from
08N-10N between 40W-43W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are elsewhere from 07N-12N between 37W-44W.
Isolated showers are within 60 nm of the wave axis from 04N-07N.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 65W from 18N southward to
central Venezuela moving west around 10 kt. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms continue over and near portions of the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico. This convection may be more related to
the surface trough to the north of the area and the broad upper
level cyclonic wind flow, which covers the Caribbean Sea from 78W
eastward.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 78/79W from 08N-19N moving
west around 10 kt. A 700 mb trough is depicted by model guidance
in association with this tropical wave. Isolated showers are
within 90 nm either side of the wave axis from 13N-17N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Sierra Leone
near 08N13W to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to 05N28W
to 06N37W. The ITCZ resumes west of a tropical wave at 08N44W to
09N54W. Aside from the convection mentioned above in the tropical
waves section, numerous moderate with embedded isolated strong
convection is located from 05N-11N between 16W-35W. Scattered
moderate convection extends to 30 nm south and 240 nm north of
the ITCZ between 44W-50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from eastern Tennessee to Meridian
Mississippi to Alexandria Louisiana to College Station Texas,
where it becomes a stationary front that heads west into west
Texas. South of the front, strong thunderstorms are occurring over
portions of the north Gulf Coast. A broken to nearly continuous
line of thunderstorms extends to 30 nm either side of a line from
30N86.5W to 29.5N88W to 29N90W to 29N91.5W. The strongest
thunderstorms are occurring from 29N-30N between 87W-89W.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also seen from 28N-29N
between between 91.5W-95W. Another line of showers and
thunderstorms is parallel to this line but located over land in
between this line and the cold front. Isolated showers are
possible elsewhere north of 26N. Broad upper level W wind flow
spans the entire area. An upper level anticyclonic circulation
center is inland over western Guatemala and southern Mexico. A
surface ridge extends from Bermuda, across the Florida Peninsula
and to the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

The cold front mentioned in the paragraph above will become
stationary today just north of the Gulf Coast. Scattered
thunderstorms with isolated strong thunderstorms are likely to
continue through the day today and possibly into this evening,
mainly north of 27N, between the southeast Louisiana coast and the
waters south of Tallahassee Florida. High pressure ridging from
the Atlantic over the Gulf will support gentle to moderate winds
over the basin through Thu night. The next cold front will move
over the NW Gulf by Fri morning, then eventually stall from S
Florida to the Bay of Campeche by Sat night. Strong winds and
building seas are expected behind this front. NW to N winds could
reach minimal gale force late Fri night through Sat night over the
far western Gulf S of 26N. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are likely to precede the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that
ended at 06/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 1.87 in San
Juan Puerto Rico.

An upper level trough extends from a 26N59W Atlantic Ocean
cyclonic circulation center southwestward over Puerto Rico and the
Dominican Republic through the central Caribbean to the NE coast
of Colombia. Broad mid to upper level cyclonic wind flow covers
the Caribbean Sea from 78W eastward. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are over the eastern Caribbean Sea north of
14N and east of 73W, including Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and
northern Leeward Islands.

The surface ridge that extends from Bermuda to Florida to the
south-central Gulf, also influences the weather in the northwest
Caribbean, where the weather is relatively quiet west of 80W.

The east Pacific monsoon trough, which goes through Panama, is
inducing only isolated showers at this time south of 10N in the
far SW Caribbean.

A surface trough, currently just east of the Lesser Antilles, is
producing a large area of convection that has already reached
Trinidad and is almost to Barbados. Expect showers and
thunderstorms to increase in coverage over the eastern Caribbean
Sea, Trinidad, the Lesser Antilles and Virgin Islands tonight into
Wednesday, and likely lasting into Thursday. Some of the activity
could spread to Puerto Rico Wednesday or Thursday. Some of the
storms may have gusty winds through Thu over the eastern
Caribbean. A mid to upper-level trough extending from the central
Atlantic to the central Caribbean and the tropical wave along 65W
will also help to enhance showers and thunderstorms over the
eastern Caribbean. High pres over the central Atlantic will
weaken as it shifts SE during the next few days. Accordingly,
light to moderate trades are expected in the Caribbean Sea for the
next several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough just east of the Lesser Antilles extends from
17N55W to 13N57W to 09N58W, and this trough is moving slowly
westward. A large area of numerous moderate with embedded isolated
strong convection extends from 10N-17N between 51W-59W. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are elsewhere from 09N-18N
between 50W-61W. Satellite imagery shows a small area of moderate
to strong convection over Trinidad.

An upper level trough extends from a 26N59W Atlantic Ocean
cyclonic circulation center southwestward to Puerto Rico and the
Dominican Republic. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the
area that is from 20N northward between 50W-65W. A surface trough
extends from 28N58W to 19N60W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are seen from 19N-28N between 50W-62W.

Upper level SW wind flow, and broken to overcast multilayered
clouds along with scattered moderate rainshowers, are to the
northwest of a line that passes through 32N65W to the NW Bahamas.
Isolated showers are elsewhere north of 25N and west of 69W. A
surface ridge influences the weather to the south and east of that
area, with mainly quiet weather from 24N-29N between 62W-69W.
High pressure over the north-central Atlantic also extends a ridge
over the eastern subtropical Atlantic, with relatively quiet
weather north of 19N and east of 45W.

NE swell over the tropical Atlantic waters will subside through
Thu. A strong cold front is expected to move off the southeast
coast of the U.S. and into the waters east of Georgia and Florida
Sat and Sat night, followed by fresh to strong NE winds and
building seas. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds will continue
over the remainder of the forecast waters through period.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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