[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061205
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 AM EST Tue Nov 6 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38/39W from 15N
southward moving west around 5 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is from 07N to 12N between 37W and 45W.
Scattered showers are also from 11N-14N between 34W-37W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W from 18N southward
moving west around 10 kt. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow
covers the Caribbean Sea from 78W eastward. It appears that most
if not all the rainshowers that are from 15N to 19N between 61W
and 72W are related to the upper level cyclonic wind flow.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 77W from 19N southward
moving west around 10 kt. Isolated showers are within 90 nm either
side of the wave axis from 12N-17N.

A surface trough is along 52W from 07N to 17N. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong rainshowers are from 10N to 17N between 50W
and 60W. Scattered moderate convection is also seen from 08N-12N
between 45W-50W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Sierra Leone
near 08N13W to 07N16W. The ITCZ continues from 07N16W to 05N27W
to 06N37W. Numerous moderate/scattered strong convection is
located within 240 nm north of the ITCZ between 23W-34W. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are within 240 nm north of the ITCZ
between 34W-37W. Scattered moderate convection is between the
African coast and 23W extending to 210 nm either side of the
monsoon trough and ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front that extends from central Mississippi to central
Louisiana to east-central Texas at 09 UTC has showers and
thunderstorms ahead of it, some strong. These scattered showers
and thunderstorms are occurring this morning along the northern
Gulf Coast between Vermilion Bay Louisiana and Panama City
Florida. This activity extends into the northern Gulf of Mexico
and is mainly occurring north of 28N between 86W-94W. Broad upper
level W to SW wind flow spans the entire area. An upper level
anticyclonic circulation center is inland over Guatemala and
southern Mexico. Isolated showers are possible elsewhere north of
25N and east of 95W. A surface ridge extends from Bermuda, across
the Florida Peninsula and to the eastern and south-central Gulf of
Mexico.

The cold front mentioned in the paragraph above will become
stationary today just north of the Gulf Coast. Scattered
thunderstorms with isolated strong thunderstorms are possible
through the day today, mainly north of 27N, between the southeast
Louisiana coast and the waters south of Tallahassee Florida. High
pressure extending from the Atlantic to the central Gulf will
support mainly gentle to moderate winds over the basin through
Thu. The next cold front will move over the NW Gulf coast late Thu
night. It is forecast to reach from the NE Gulf to near 26N93W
and to the Mexican coast near 23N98W by early Fri evening, and
from a position from near Sarasota, Florida to 24N92W and to the
SW Gulf Sat. Strong northerly winds and building seas are expected
behind this front. The northerly winds are expected to reach
minimal gale force late Fri night through Sat night over the far
western Gulf S of 26N. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
likely to precede the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that
ended at 06/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.25 in
Guadeloupe.

An upper level trough extends from a 26N59W Atlantic Ocean
cyclonic circulation center to 20N67W, through the Mona Passage,
into the central Caribbean Sea. Broad middle level to upper level
cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 78W eastward.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 180
nm to the south and southeast of Puerto Rico and the Virgin
Islands. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 78W
eastward.

The surface ridge that extends from Bermuda to Florida to the
south-central Gulf, also influences the weather int he northwest
Caribbean, where the weather is relatively quiet.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N between 74W in northern
Colombia, across Panama, beyond southern Costa Rica, into the
eastern Pacific Ocean. Isolated showers are mainly south of 10N
between 75W-83W.

High pressure over the central Atlantic will weaken as it shifts
eastward during the next few days. As a result, trades will be be
mainly in the moderate range as the gradient slackens. A mid to
upper-level trough extending from the central Atlantic to the
central Caribbean, in combination with a tropical wave over the
eastern Caribbean, will continue to bring scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms, some possibly with gusty winds, over
much of the northeastern Caribbean through Thu. NE swell over the
tropical Atlantic waters will subside through tonight.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough extends from a 25N57W cyclonic circulation
center to 20N67W, through the Mona Passage, into the central
Caribbean Sea. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area
that is from 20N northward between 50W and 74W. A surface trough
is along 58W from 20N to 28N. Scattered moderate convection is
seen from 23N-27N between 50W-60W.

A frontal boundary is inland, in the southeastern U.S.A., from
North Carolina to South Carolina to Georgia. Upper level SW wind
flow, and broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated
moderate rainshowers, are to the west and northwest of the line
that passes through 32N69W to 28N72W to 25N80W. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are north of 27N and west to 70W. A
surface ridge influences the weather to the south and east of that
area.

High pressure over the area will weaken as it retreats eastward
through Sat in response to a strong cold front that will be
approaching the eastern seaboard. This cold front is expected to
move across the northwest section of the area Sat and Sat night,
followed by fresh to strong northeast winds and building seas.
Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds will continue over the
remainder of the forecast waters through period. NE long period
swell over the eastern waters will subside through tonight.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT/Hagen
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