[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060538
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1238 AM EST Tue Nov 6 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0430 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 37W/38W from 15N
southward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are from 07N to 14N between 36W and 43W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 62W/63W from 18N
southward. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the
Caribbean Sea from 80W eastward. It appears that most if not all
the rainshowers that are from 14N to 20N between 60W and 70W are
related to the upper level cyclonic wind flow.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 76W from 19N southward
moving west around 10 kt. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from
18N southward between 70W and 77W.

A surface trough is along 50W/51W from 07N to 17N. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 10N to
17N between 50W and 60W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Sierra Leone
near 08N13W to 07N16W. The ITCZ continues from 07N16W to 06N27W
to 06N37W. Disorganized widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong rainshowers are from 05N to 10N between 22W and 34W.
Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 13N southward
from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad upper level SW wind flow spans the entire area. An upper
level anticyclonic circulation center is inland, in the area of
the southern part of the Yucatan Peninsula/the eastern part of the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec/northern Guatemala. Rainshowers are
possible to the north of 24N.

A surface ridge extends from Bermuda, to 30N75W, across south
Florida and the Florida Keys, to the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.

Atlantic Ocean surface high pressure will support mainly gentle
to moderate winds in the Gulf of Mexico through Thursday. The
next cold front will move into the NW Gulf coast late on Thursday
night. It is forecast to reach from the NE Gulf, to near 26N93W
and to the Mexican coast near 23N98W by early on Friday evening,
and from Sarasota, Florida to 24N92W and to the SW Gulf on
Saturday. Strong northerly winds and building seas are expected
behind this front. The northerly winds may reach minimal gale
force briefly early on Saturday in the far SW Gulf. It is likely
that scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms will precede the
front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that
ended at 06/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.25 in
Guadeloupe, and 0.06 in Curacao.

An upper level trough extends from a 25N57W Atlantic Ocean cyclonic
circulation center to 20N67W, through the Mona Passage, into the
central Caribbean Sea. Broad middle level to upper level cyclonic
wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 80W eastward. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 180
nm to the south and southeast of Puerto Rico and the Virgin
Islands. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 78W
eastward.

A surface ridge extends from Bermuda, to 30N75W, across south
Florida and the Florida Keys, to the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N between 74W in northern
Colombia, across Panama, beyond southern Costa Rica, into the
eastern Pacific Ocean. Rainshowers are possible from 12N southward
from 74W westward.

Central Atlantic Ocean surface high pressure will weaken as it
shifts eastward through Tuesday night. This will allow for
moderate to fresh trade winds to diminish slightly, from Tuesday
through Friday night, under a rather weak surface pressure
gradient. A middle level to upper level trough, that extends from
the central Atlantic Ocean into the central Caribbean Sea, will
continue to bring scattered to numerous rainshowers and
thunderstorms, some with possibly gusty winds, to much of the
eastern Caribbean Sea through Tuesday. NE swell, that is in the
tropical Atlantic Ocean waters, will subside through tonight.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough extends from a 25N57W cyclonic circulation
center to 20N67W, through the Mona Passage, into the central
Caribbean Sea. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area
that is from 20N northward between 50W and 74W. A surface trough
is along 57W/58W from 19N to 29N. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers are from 17N to 28N between 50W and
65W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere, from 15N to 20N
between 58W and 63W, and elsewhere from 20N northward between 50W
and 70W.

A frontal boundary is inland, in the southeastern U.S.A., from
South Carolina to Georgia and Alabama. Upper level SW wind flow,
and broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate
rainshowers, are to the west and northwest of the line that passes
through 32N69W to 28N72W to 25N80W.

A surface ridge extends from Bermuda, to 30N75W, across south
Florida and the Florida Keys, to the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.

Fresh to locally strong northeast winds, that are in the waters S
of 22N, will diminish to mainly moderate late tonight. NE swell
of 7 feet to 9 feet S of 29N E of 70W, will subside through
Tuesday. Surface high pressure, that spans the area, will weaken
and shift E of the region through Wednesday night. This will
allow for gentle to moderate winds across the entire area from
Wednesday night through Saturday night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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