[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 PM EST Mon Nov 5 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38W/39W from 15N
southward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are from 06N to 12N between 34W and 40W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 61W/62W from 18N
southward. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the
Caribbean Sea from 80W eastward. It appears that most if not all
the rainshowers that are from 14N to 20N between 60W and 70W are
related to the upper level cyclonic wind flow.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W from 19N southward
moving west around 10 kt. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from
18N southward between 70W and 77W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau near 11N16W, to 09N19W. The ITCZ continues from 09N19W to
06N27W to 08N37W, from 08N41W to 09N50W to 09N58W. Disorganized
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are
elsewhere from 17N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front is oriented E-W along the northern Gulf Coast
from the western Florida Panhandle to Gulf Shores Alabama to
Morgan City Louisiana to the Gulf Coast at the Texas/Louisiana
border, where it becomes a warm front. The warm front continues
west-southwestward through Galveston Bay, inland over Texas to a
1010 mb surface low centered just northwest of Corpus Christi. A
stationary front extends southward and bends west to near Laredo,
Texas. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms cover the
eastern Gulf of Mexico east of 87W, with only isolated showers
south of Ft. Myers Florida and east of 84W. Isolated showers are
over the southwest Gulf of Mexico.

Atlantic Ocean surface high pressure will support mainly gentle
to moderate winds in the Gulf of Mexico through Thursday. The
next cold front will move into the NW Gulf coast late on Thursday
night. It is forecast to reach from the NE Gulf to near 26N93W to
the SW Gulf by Friday night. Strong northerly winds and building
seas are expected behind this front. It is likely that scattered
rainshowers and thunderstorms will precede the front.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that
ended at 05/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 1.22 in
Guadeloupe, 0.27 in San Juan in Puerto Rico, 0.24 in Kingston in
Jamaica, 0.05 in Tegucigalpa in Honduras, and 0.01 in Curacao.

Broad mid-upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea
from 80W eastward. This is connected to a mid- upper level trough
that extends from the central Atlantic to the central Caribbean.
Aside from the convection east of 75W, mentioned above, fairly
quiet weather covers the area west of 75W and north of 11N.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring in the
far southwest Caribbean, south of 11N between 75W-84W, due to the
East Pacific monsoon trough, which extends along 08N from 75W
westward to the East Pacific.

Central Atlantic Ocean surface high pressure will weaken as it
shifts eastward through Tuesday night. This will allow for
moderate to fresh trade winds to diminish slightly, from Tuesday
through Friday night, under a rather weak surface pressure
gradient. A middle level to upper level trough extending from the
central Atlc Ocean to the central Caribbean Sea will continue to
bring scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, some with
gusty winds, over much of the eastern Caribbean Sea through Tue.
NE swell over the tropical Atlantic Ocean waters will subside
through tonight.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front is over eastern South Carolina and Georgia.
Scattered moderate convection is mainly north of 31N between 75W
and the Georgia coast.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow extends from the central Atlantic
to the central Caribbean and covers an area bounded by the points
33N64W 18N77W 12N64W 24N49W 28N46W 33N64W. Within this area, an
upper level low is near 23N58W. A surface trough is near the
upper-low and extends from 28N58W to 24N59W to 19N58W. Scattered
moderate convection is seen from 22N-26N between 53W-61W.
Scattered moderate convection is also from 26N-28N between 61W-
63W.

A 1030 mb high centered near 35N44W extends a ridge toward the
eastern Atlantic, leading to quiet weather north of 20N and east
of 44W.

Fresh to locally strong northeast winds, that are in the waters
S of 22N, will diminish to mainly moderate later this evening.
NE swell of 7 feet to 9 feet S of 29N E of 70W will subside
through Tuesday. Surface high pressure that spans the area will
weaken and shift E of the region through Wedneday night, allowing
for gentle to moderate winds across the entire area from Wednesday
night through Friday night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
hagen/latto/mt
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