[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051730
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1230 PM EST Mon Nov 5 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 37/38W from 15N
southward moving west around 5 kt. Numerous moderate/isolated
strong convection is seen from 05N-11N between 35W-38W. Scattered
showers are elsewhere between 32W-41W from 02N-14N.

A tropical wave is approaching the Lesser Antilles and is
currently along 60/61W from 07N-17N, moving west at 10-15 kt.
Scattered showers are seen from the coast of Guyana and NE
Venezuela to 13N between 55W-61W, including over Trinidad.
Scattered moderate convection is from 16N-19N between 57W-64W,
including over portions of the Leeward and Virgin Islands. This
activity is likely to spread over Puerto Rico this afternoon. Most
of this convection is enhanced by mid-upper level cyclonic flow
to the north and west of the area.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W from 18N southward
moving west around 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 12N-18N
between 69W-75W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau near 11N15W, to 08N19W. The ITCZ continues from 08N19W to
06N27W to 08N35W, and resumes west of a tropical wave from 08N39W
to 08N44W to 10N52W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the
tropical waves section, scattered moderate convection is from
02N-13N between the African coast and 19W. Numerous moderate to
isolated strong convection extends to 180 nm both sides of the
ITCZ between 19W-30W, except this convection extends to 270 nm
south of the ITCZ between 28W-30W. Numerous moderate to isolated
strong convection is also noted from 08N-11N between 43W-47W.
Scattered showers are elsewhere between the African coast and 49W
within 300 nm of the monsoon trough and ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front is oriented E-W along the northern Gulf Coast
from the western Florida Panhandle to Gulf Shores Alabama to
Morgan City Louisiana to the Gulf Coast at the Texas/Louisiana
border, where it becomes a warm front. The warm front continues
west-southwestward through Galveston Bay, inland over Texas to a
1010 mb surface low centered just northwest of Corpus Christi. A
stationary front extends southward and bends west to near Laredo,
Texas. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms cover the
eastern Gulf of Mexico east of 87W, with only isolated showers
south of Ft. Myers Florida and east of 84W. Isolated showers are
over the southwest Gulf of Mexico.

A cold front will move from the Central U.S. toward the Gulf Coast
Tuesday but is expected to stall over southern Louisiana without
entering the Gulf of Mexico. High pressure will support mainly
gentle to moderate winds over the basin through Thu. The next
cold front will move over the NW Gulf coast late Thu night. It is
forecast to reach from the NE Gulf to near 26N93W to the SW Gulf
by Fri night. Strong northerly winds and building seas are
expected behind this front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are likely to precede the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that
ended at 05/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 1.22 in
Guadeloupe.

Broad mid-upper level cyclonic flow covers the area from Jamaica
eastward. This is connected to a mid-upper level trough that
extends from the central Atlantic to the central Caribbean. Aside
from the convection east of 75W, mentioned above, fairly quiet
weather covers the area west of 75W and north of 11N.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring in the
far southwest Caribbean, south of 11N between 75W-84W, due to the
East Pacific monsoon trough, which extends along 08N from 75W
westward to the East Pacific.

The mid to upper-level trough extending from the central Atlantic
to central Caribbean will continue to bring scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms, some with gusty winds, over much of the
eastern Caribbean through Tue, including the northern Leeward
Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. NE swell over the
tropical Atlantic waters will subside through tonight. High
pressure over the central Atlantic will weaken as it shifts
eastward through Tue night, allowing for moderate to fresh trades
to diminish somewhat Tue and change little through Fri night under
a rather weak pressure gradient.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front is over eastern South Carolina and Georgia.
Scattered moderate convection is mainly north of 31N between 75W
and the Georgia coast.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow extends from the central Atlantic
to the central Caribbean and covers an area bounded by the points
33N64W 18N77W 12N64W 24N49W 28N46W 33N64W. Within this area, an
upper level low is near 23N58W. A surface trough is near the
upper-low and extends from 28N58W to 24N59W to 19N58W. Scattered
moderate convection is seen from 22N-26N between 53W-61W.
Scattered moderate convection is also from 26N-28N between 61W-
63W.

A 1030 mb high centered near 35N44W extends a ridge toward the
eastern Atlantic, leading to quiet weather north of 20N and east
of 44W.

The showers and thunderstorms near the Georgia coast will
continue to push northward and weaken today. Fresh to locally
strong northeast winds over the waters S of 22N will diminish to
mainly moderate later today. NE swell of 7 to 9 ft S of 29N and E
of 70W will subside through Tue. High pressure over the area will
weaken and shift E of the region through Wed night allowing for
gentle to moderate winds over the entire area northeast of the
Lesser Antilles and east of the Bahamas Wed night through Fri
night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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