[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051205
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 AM EST Mon Nov 5 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 36W from 15N southward,
based on long-loop satellite images. ITCZ-related disorganized
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from
02N-12N between 30W and 40W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 58W from 15N southward to
Guyana. Scattered showers are seen within 180 nm either side of
the wave axis north of 09N. Scattered showers are also near and
just east of the northern Windward and Leeward Islands.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 73W from 17N southward.
The wave continues to move westward through an area of pre-
existing upper level cyclonic wind flow. Scattered showers extend
over the entire eastern Caribbean from the wave axis eastward,
enhanced by the upper-level cyclonic flow near and to the east of
the wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W, to 10N20W. The ITCZ continues from 10N20W,
along 09N/10N to 34W, and then from 08N37W to 08N45W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from
01N-11N between 16W-30W. A surface trough is along 45W from 06N-
13N. Disorganized and scattered moderate rainshowers are seen from
07N-15N between 40W-51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front passes through southwest Louisiana midway
between Lake Charles and Lafayette, and extends southwestward
through the northwest Gulf of Mexico to 29N95W, inland into
southern Texas near 27N97W, bending W and NW to Laredo Texas and
Del Rio Texas. A surface trough extends from the western Florida
Panhandle southwestward across the northern Gulf to 29N89W to
27N95W. A warm front extends from southern South Carolina to the
Big Bend of Florida near 30N84W to 29N86W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers are from 26N southward between 86W and
94W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated
rainshowers span the rest of the Gulf of Mexico.

The current Atlantic Ocean to South Carolina to NE Gulf of Mexico warm
front will dissipate later today or tonight as central Atlantic
high pressure builds westward to the eastern Gulf through Tue. The
stationary front in the NW Gulf of Mexico will lift back north as
a warm front today. Winds over the area will become mainly
southerly and gentle to moderate in speeds today through Thu. The
next cold front will move over the NW Gulf coast late Thu night.
It is forecast to reach from the NE Gulf to near 26N93W and to the SW
Gulf by Fri night. Strong northerly winds and building seas are
expected behind this front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are likely to precede the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that
ended at 05/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 1.30 in
Guadeloupe, 0.26 in Tegucigalpa in Honduras, and 0.07 in Curacao.

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area from Jamaica
eastward. Aside from the convection east of 73W, mentioned above,
the fair quiet weather covers the area west of 73W and north of
12N.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N between 74W in Colombia and
beyond southern Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the SW corner of the area from
12N southward from 76W westward.

High pressure over the central Atlantic will weaken as it shifts
eastward through Tue night. Moderate to fresh trades diminish to
mainly gentle to moderate speeds Tue and change little through Fri
night under a rather weak pressure gradient. A mid to upper-level
trough with its axis near 69W will continue to bring scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms, some with gusty winds, over
much of the eastern Caribbean through Tue. NE swell over the
tropical Atlantic waters will subside through tonight.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A warm front is over the western Atlantic to the north of the area
and extends inland to South Carolina. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring north of 30N and west of 74W.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 24N57W. Upper
level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 21N
northward between 50W and 66W. A surface trough is along 27N55W
23N55W 18N54W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 23N-27N
between 54W-61W are. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 22N-
26N between 44W-51W.

A warm front extending from 31N81W to NE Florida will lift north
of the area this morning. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms across the northwest waters, off the north Florida
and Georgia coasts, will continue through early this evening.
Fresh to locally strong northeast winds along with long period NE
swell are over the southeastern waters, to the northeast of the
northeastern Caribbean Sea. These winds will diminish to mainly
moderate winds today, and the swell will subside through tonight.
High pressure over the area will weaken through Wed night. East
winds will then become gentle to moderate winds S of 27N and
gentle southeast to south winds N of 27N through Fri night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT/Hagen
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