[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050539
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1239 AM EST Mon Nov 5 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 34W/35W from 15N
southward, based on long-loop satellite images. ITCZ-related
disorganized widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are from 12N southward between 30W and 40W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 57W/58W from 15N
southward. Any nearby rainshowers are most probably more related
to the ITCZ than to the tropical wave. Isolated moderate from 15N
southward between 50W and 60W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 71W/72W from 17N
southward. The wave continues to move through an area of pre-
existing upper level cyclonic wind flow. Any nearby rainshowers
are most probably more related to the upper level cyclonic wind
flow. Isolated moderate rainshowers are between 70W and 80W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W, to 10N20W. The ITCZ continues from 10N20W,
along 09N/10N to 34W, and then from 08N37W to 08N50W. Disorganized
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from
16N southward from 60W eastward. A surface trough is along
43W/44W from 13N southward. Disorganized and isolated moderate
rainshowers are within 60 nm on either side of the trough.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through south central Louisiana, into the NW
corner of the Gulf of Mexico, to the Deep South of Texas. The
front becomes stationary along the Texas border with Mexico that
is near 100W. The stationary front continues northwestward beyond
the Far West of Texas. A surface trough is within 90 nm of the
cold front from 27N northward. A warm front is along 27N86W,
beyond 30N81W in NE Florida, into the Atlantic Ocean, beyond
32N78W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers
are from 26N southward between 86W and 93W. Broken to overcast
multilayered clouds and isolated moderate rainshowers span the
rest of the Gulf of Mexico.

The current Atlantic Ocean to Florida warm front will move
northward, to the NE Gulf of Mexico on Monday afternoon. The front
will dissipate, as central Atlantic Ocean high pressure builds
westward to the eastern Gulf of Mexico through Tuesday. The
current stationary front, that extends from south central
Louisiana to the lower Texas coast, will move northward as a warm
front on Monday. The wind speeds in that area will become mainly
southerly, gentle to moderate in speeds from Monday through
Thursday. A second cold front will move across the NW Gulf of
Mexico coast late on Thursday night. The front will reach from
the NE Gulf of Mexico to 26N93W, and into the SW Gulf of Mexico
by Friday night. Strong northerly winds and building seas are
expected behind this front. It is likely that scattered
rainshowers and thunderstorms will precede the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that
ended at 05/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 1.30 in
Guadeloupe, 0.26 in Tegucigalpa in Honduras, and 0.07 in Curacao.

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area from Jamaica
eastward. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are
from 21N southward between 56W in the Atlantic Ocean and 74W in
the Caribbean Sea.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N between 74W in Colombia and
beyond southern Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the SW corner of the area from
12N southward from 76W westward.

Surface high pressure that is in the central Atlantic Ocean will
weaken as it shifts eastward through Tuesday night. Moderate to
fresh trade winds diminish to mainly gentle to moderate speeds on
Tuesday, and change little through Friday night under a rather
weak surface pressure gradient. A middle level to upper level
trough, that is along 70W, will continue to bring scattered to
numerous rainshowers and thunderstorms, some with gusty winds,
to much of the eastern Caribbean through Tuesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A warm front is along 27N86W in the Gulf of Mexico, beyond 30N81W
in NE Florida, into the Atlantic Ocean, beyond 32N78W. Broken to
overcast multilayered clouds and widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers are to the west of the line that
passes through 32N73W 26N79W.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 24N56W. Upper
level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 21N
northward between 50W and 66W. A surface trough is along 27N55W
23N55W 18N54W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshoewrs are from 23N to 28N between 52W and 62W. Isolated
moderate rainshowers are from 21N to 26N between 40W and 50W.

The current Atlantic Ocean-to-Florida warm front will move to the
north of the area on Monday. Scattered rainshowers and isolated
thunderstorms, that are associated with the front, will continue
across the northwest waters through Monday morning. Fresh to
locally strong northeast winds, and long period NE swell, are in
the southeastern waters. These winds will diminish to mainly
moderate winds on Monday, and the swell will subside. Surface high
pressure will weaken through Wednesday night. East winds then will
become gentle to moderate S of 27N, and gentle southeast to south
winds N of 27N.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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