[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 PM EST Sun Nov 4 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W/36W from 15N
southward. ITCZ-related disorganized widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers are from 05N to 12N between 30W and
41W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 55W/56W from 15N
southward. Any nearby rainshowers are most probably more related
to the ITCZ than to the tropical wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70W/71W from 17N southward.
The wave continues to move through an area of pre-existing upper
level cyclonic wind flow. Any nearby rainshowers are most probably
more related to the upper level cyclonic wind flow.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau near 11N15W, to 09N19W. The ITCZ continues from 09N19W to
06N25W and 06N34W, and 08N46W. A surface trough is along 11N46W
09N49W 08N52W. Disorganized widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong rainshowers are from 16N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A warm front passes through Ft. Myers Florida to 25N84W. A
weakening stationary front extends from 25N84W to 22N91W. Upper
level SW wind flow spans the entire Gulf of Mexico. Scattered
moderate showers and thunderstorms are over the Gulf of Mexico
from 21N-28N between the west coast of Florida and 94W. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are observed elsewhere across
the Gulf of Mexico.

A cold front at 12Z extends from the Louisiana/Texas border near
31N94W to Houston Texas to south of San Antonio Texas to south of
Del Rio Texas. At 15Z, this cold front is analyzed to have
entered the far NW Gulf of Mexico from just south of Lake Charles
Louisiana to just southeast of Galveston Texas to near Port
O'Connor Texas. National Weather Service Doppler radar shows
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms just ahead of this
cold front over the northwest Gulf of Mexico, mainly north of 28N
and west of 91W offshore of the Texas and western Louisiana
coasts.

A warm front extending across northern Florida to
27N84W and a surface trough along 27N86W to 23N95W continue to
support scattered showers and isolated tstms over the northern
half of the gulf. Moderate SE winds behind these frontal
boundaries will become mainly gentle in speeds tonight as these
features continue to weaken. High pressure over the NE CONUS
will shift E over the N Atlc waters through Mon allowing for winds
to become mainly southerly over much of the basin on Tue. A weak
cold front has started to move across the NW waters. The front
will reach the SE CONUS on Mon and then it will stall along the
gulf coastline through dissipation on Tue. A second cold front
will approach the far NW Gulf coast late Thu night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that
ended at 04/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.69 in San
Juan Puerto Rico, 0.68 in Freeport in the Bahamas, 0.63 in
Guadeloupe, 0.35 in St. Thomas, 0.26 in Curacao, and 0.01 in
Kingston in Jamaica.

Convection associated with the mid to upper-level low in the
northeast Caribbean is described above in the tropical waves
section. Elsewhere, isolated showers are still over the Yucatan
Channel, but activity in this area has decreased since this
morning as the stationary front to the north weakens and lifts
northward. Scattered showers are also noted over Belize.

The monsoon trough extends from NW Colombia near 10N75W to eastern
Panama near 09N78W to the Pacific coast of western Panama near
08N83W. Isolated to scattered moderate rainshowers are in the
southwest Caribbean from 12N southward from 77W westward.

Upper-level anticyclonic flow covers the northwest Caribbean and
much of Central America. Relatively quiet weather prevails between
73W-83W north of 12N.

Strong NE winds will funnel through the Windward
Passage tonight as high pressure in the NE CONUS shift over
north Atlc waters. By Monday, high pressure over the central
Atlantic will dissipate, thus allowing for the trades to
diminish in the central and eastern Caribbean. Gentle to
moderate trades will dominate across the basin the remainder of
the forecast period. The combination of a middle level low,
upper level divergence and a tropical wave moving over central
Caribbean waters support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms,
and some gusty winds over much of the northeastern Caribbean.
This activity is expected to remain quite active through tonight.


Strong NE winds will funnel through the Windward Passage tonight
as high pressure in the NE CONUS shifts over north Atlc waters.
By Monday, high pressure over the central Atlantic will dissipate,
thus allowing for the trades to diminish in the central and
eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate trades will dominate across
the basin for the remainder of the forecast period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A warm front passes through 32N74W to the northern shore of Lake
Okeechobee Florida near 27N81W and continues into the eastern
Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate convection is from 28N-32W
between 73W-80W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also in
the western Florida Straits west of 81W between western Cuba and
the western Florida Keys.

A surface trough extends from 19N50W to 25N52W. An elongated upper
level cyclonic circulation center is near 23N52W. Upper-level
cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 21N to 32N
between 42W and 64W. Scattered moderate rainshowers are from 22N
to 27N between 48W and 55W. Another surface trough analyzed along
46W from 06N to 13N is producing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms south of 17N and east of 51W, extending southward
and eastward until the ITCZ enhances convection in the area
surrounding 10N40W, described above in the ITCZ section.

The mid-upper level low near Puerto Rico extends showers and
thunderstorms northward from the Caribbean into the Atlantic to
22N, between 60W-72W.

The warm front, that currently extends from the western Atlantic
Ocean to Florida, will continue to move northward through Monday.
Scattered rainshowers and isolated thunderstorms, that are
associated with the front, will continue across the NW waters
through Monday morning. Fresh to locally strong NE winds, and
long period NE swell, are in the SE waters. These winds will
diminish, to mainly moderate winds, on Monday, and the swell will
subside. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds will dominate the
waters thereafter.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
ah/nr/mt
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