[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041742
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1242 PM EST Sun Nov 4 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 34/35W from 02N-15N
moving west at 10-15 kt. Numerous moderate with embedded isolated
strong convection is seen within 210 nm west and 120 nm east of
the wave axis from 07N-10N. The ITCZ is also enhancing convection
in the area.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 55/56W from 15N
southward to Suriname moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers
extend 180 nm west and 60 nm east of the wave axis from the coast
of South America to 11N.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 69/70W from 17N southward
into western Venezuela moving west around 10 kt. A mid to upper
level low centered just south of Puerto Rico is drifting W around
5 kt. Due to the combination of the wave and the mid to upper
level low, along with enhanced upper-level divergence in the area,
scattered moderate convection is occurring from 15N-20N between
64W-69W. Flood advisories are in effect for portions of
northeastern Puerto Rico due to heavy rainfall in the area. The
convection over the northeast and north-central Caribbean, Puerto
Rico and Hispaniola is expected to remain quite active through
tonight. Gusty winds are also expected with this activity through
tonight.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Guinea near
11N15W, to 10N18W. The ITCZ continues from 10N18W to 07N26W to
06N32W, then resumes west of a tropical wave from 06N37W to
07N44W. Aside from the convection mentioned above in the tropical
waves section, scattered to numerous moderate convection with
isolated strong convection extends to within 210 nm north and 300
nm south of the ITCZ between 18W-32W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection extends to within 300 nm north of the
ITCZ between 37W-44W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also
between the coast of Africa and 18W from 04N-11N.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A warm front passes through Ft. Myers Florida to 25N84W. A
weakening stationary front extends from 25N84W to 22N91W. Upper
level SW wind flow spans the entire Gulf of Mexico. Scattered
moderate showers and thunderstorms are over the Gulf of Mexico
from 21N-28N between the west coast of Florida and 94W. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are observed elsewhere across
the Gulf of Mexico.

A cold front at 12Z extends from the Louisiana/Texas border near
31N94W to Houston Texas to south of San Antonio Texas to south of
Del Rio Texas. At 15Z, this cold front is analyzed to have
entered the far NW Gulf of Mexico from just south of Lake Charles
Louisiana to just southeast of Galveston Texas to near Port
O'Connor Texas. National Weather Service Doppler radar shows
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms just ahead of this
cold front over the northwest Gulf of Mexico, mainly north of 28N
and west of 91W offshore of the Texas and western Louisiana
coasts.

Moderate E to SE winds to the south of the front in the southeast
Gulf of Mexico will become mainly gentle this afternoon as the
front weakens and dissipates by this evening. The cold front that
has entered the far NW Gulf of Mexico as of 15Z today will slow
down and become stationary over the NW Gulf today. The warm front
over Florida will lift northward over the NE Gulf. By Monday, the
two fronts will combine and become an E-W stationary front draped
across the northern Gulf. The front will then lift out of the
area Monday evening, allowing winds to be mainly southerly over
much of the Gulf Mon night and Tue. Winds shift to the southwest
over the NW Gulf late Mon night and early Tue ahead of the next
cold front that will be approaching from the Southern Plains.
This front will move across the NW and north-central Gulf waters
on Tue. On Wed, the cold front is expected to reach from the NE
Gulf to near 26N91W and become stationary from there to southern
Texas. The front will then lift back to the north as a warm front
Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that
ended at 13/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.69 in San
Juan Puerto Rico.

Convection associated with the mid to upper-level low in the
northeast Caribbean is described above in the tropical waves
section. Elsewhere, isolated showers are still over the Yucatan
Channel, but activity in this area has decreased since this
morning as the stationary front to the north weakens and lifts
northward. Scattered showers are also noted over Belize.

The monsoon trough extends from NW Colombia near 10N75W to eastern
Panama near 09N78W to the Pacific coast of western Panama near
08N83W. Isolated to scattered moderate rainshowers are in the
southwest Caribbean from 12N southward from 77W westward.

Upper-level anticyclonic flow covers the northwest Caribbean and
much of Central America. Relatively quiet weather prevails between
73W-83W north of 12N.

Strong NE winds will funnel through the Windward Passage tonight
as high pressure in the NE CONUS shifts over north Atlc waters.
By Monday, high pressure over the central Atlantic will dissipate,
thus allowing for the trades to diminish in the central and
eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate trades will dominate across
the basin for the remainder of the forecast period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A warm front passes through 32N74W to the northern shore of Lake
Okeechobee Florida near 27N81W and continues into the eastern
Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate convection is from 28N-32W
between 73W-80W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also in
the western Florida Straits west of 81W between western Cuba and
the western Florida Keys.

A surface trough extends from 19N50W to 25N52W. An elongated upper
level cyclonic circulation center is near 23N52W. Upper-level
cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 21N to 32N
between 42W and 64W. Scattered moderate rainshowers are from 22N
to 27N between 48W and 55W. Another surface trough analyzed along
46W from 06N to 13N is producing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms south of 17N and east of 51W, extending southward
and eastward until the ITCZ enhances convection in the area
surrounding 10N40W, described above in the ITCZ section.

The mid-upper level low near Puerto Rico extends showers and
thunderstorms northward from the Caribbean into the Atlantic to
22N, between 60W-72W.

The warm front over Florida and western Atlantic will continue to
lift northward through Mon. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms associated with the front will continue across the
waters well north of the northwest Bahamas through Mon morning.
Fresh to locally strong NE winds along with long period NE swell
are over the waters to the northeast of the northeast Caribbean
and Virgin Islands. These winds will diminish to mainly moderate
winds on Mon and the swell will subside.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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