[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041205
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 AM EST Sun Nov 4 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 33W from 14N southward
moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection associated with the wave is seen from 03N-10N between
27W-35W. The ITCZ is also enhancing convection in the area.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 54W from 15N southward to
French Guiana moving west around 10 kt. Isolated showers are near
the wave axis from 07N-10N.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 69W from 17N southward into
western Venezuela moving west around 10 kt. An upper level low is
over the northern Caribbean and Puerto Rico generally covering the
area from 15N-20N between 65W-70W. Due to the combination of the
wave and the upper-level low, scattered moderate convection is
occurring from 15N-20N between 64W-69W. A flash flood warning and
flood advisories are in effect for portions of northeastern Puerto
Rico due to heavy rainfall in the area. Scattered areas of
moderate to heavy rainfall are possible today over portions of
Puerto Rico and the eastern Dominican Republic.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau near 11N16W, to 10N20W. The ITCZ continues from 10N20W to
07N26W to 06N32W, then resumes west of a tropical wave from
07N35W to 07N44W. Aside from the convection mentioned above in the
tropical waves section, disorganized scattered moderate convection
extends to within 150 nm north and 360 nm south of the monsoon
trough and ITCZ between 18W-27W. Scattered moderate convection
extends to within 330 nm north of the ITCZ between 35W-44W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front passes through the Straits of Florida near
24N80W, to 24N85W to 23N90W to 21N92W inland to the northern part
of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico near 18N93W.
Upper level SW wind flow spans the entire Gulf of Mexico. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 19N-22N between
92W-94W and from 23N-26N between 84W-88W. Isolated to scattered
showers are elsewhere south of a line that extends from Tampa
Florida to Tampico Mexico.

National Weather Service Doppler radar shows a squall line ahead
of a cold front about 60 nm wide with strong convection that
extends from central Louisiana to the Louisiana/Texas border near
30.5N94W to just northwest of Houston Texas to 29N97W. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are forming ahead of the squall line.
Although the line is expected to slow down as the cold front
becomes stationary just inland along the Texas and western
Louisiana coasts today, some strong thunderstorms are possible
today over the northwestern Gulf, mainly north of 28.5N and west
of 91W.

A stationary front extends from the Straits of Florida to 23N88W
and to the eastern Bay of Campeche. Moderate to fresh east to
southeast winds behind the front will become gentle to moderate in
speeds this afternoon as the front weakens and dissipate by this
evening. High pressure elsewhere over the area will shift eastward
through Tue. The moderate to fresh northeast winds become mainly
southerly, gentle to moderate in speeds, on Mon over much of the
Gulf. These winds shift to the southwest over the NW Gulf late Mon
night into Tue as a weak cold front moves across the NW and
north-central waters. On Wed, the cold front is expected to reach
from the NE Gulf to near 26N91W and stationary from there to
southern Texas. The front will then lift back to the north as a
warm front Thu as yet another cold front advances across Texas and
approaches far NW Gulf coast late Thu night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that
ended at 13/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 1.14 in
Guadeloupe, and 0.25 in Curacao.

Convection associated with the upper-level low in the northeast
Caribbean is described above in the tropical waves section.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms associated with the
stationary front over the southern Gulf of Mexico extend into the
Yucatan Channel from 20N-23N between 83W-87W. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are also noted over Belize.

The monsoon trough is along 08N75W in Colombia, beyond Panama and
08N81W, and into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Isolated to scattered
moderate rainshowers are in the southwest Caribbean from 12N
southward from 76W westward.

High pressure north of the area over the central Atlantic will
shift eastward through Mon. Strong trades along the coast of
Colombia will diminish early Sun. Strong trades will pulse within
about 60 nm south of central Hispaniola through tonight before
diminishing Mon. Elsewhere, trades will weaken Tue through Thu.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Yucatan Channel and
near northwestern Cuba will move northward through tonight.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front passes through 32N73W, across the NW Bahamas,
and beyond the Straits of Florida, into the south central Gulf of
Mexico. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated
moderate rainshowers are to the NW of the line that passes through
32N68W to 23N79W at the coast of Cuba. Showers and thunderstorms
also extend offshore the east coast of central Florida.

A surface trough is along 47W/48W from 15N to 23N. An upper level
cyclonic circulation center is near 23N51W. Upper level cyclonic
wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 19N to 32N between 40W
and 60W. Scattered moderate rainshowers are from 23N to 27N
between 46W and 50W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere
from 21N to 27N between 45W and 53W.

A stationary front extending from near 31N74W to the central
Bahamas and to the Straits of Florida will dissipate by this
evening. Its remnants will lift to the N as a warm front through
Mon. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms along and
northwest of the front will continue through tonight. Northeast
winds of fresh intensity along with long period NE swell are over
the SE waters. These winds will diminish to mainly moderate winds
on Mon. The swell will slowly subside through Mon.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Hagen
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