[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071200
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Wed Nov 7 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 42W/43W from 14N
southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is
within 120 nm of the wave axis.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 68W from the Mona Passage
southward,moving W at 10-15 kt. Isolated moderate rainshowers are
between 60W and 70W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 81W/82W from 19N
southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Disorganized isolated moderate
rainshowers are from 12N to 18N between the Windward Passage and
Central America in broad trade wind flow.

A surface trough is along 57W from 09N to 17N. Widely scattered
rainshowers are from 10N to 20N between 50W and 58W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon extends from W Africa near 08N13W to 06N22W. The ITCZ
continues from 06N22W to 08N41W. The ITCZ continues W of a
tropical wave near 09N44W to 12N60W. Scattered moderate convection
is along the coast of W Africa from 02N-09N between 10W-20W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 08N-10N between 31W-34W, and
from 10N-13N between 47W-54W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from southern Georgia, to the Florida
Panhandle, to SW Alabama, to southern Louisiana, to north central
Texas. Isolated moderate convection is N of 28N between 83W-93W.
The remainder of the Gulf of Mexico has mostly fair weather.

An Atlantic Ocean-to-central Gulf of Mexico surface ridge will
support gentle to moderate winds in the Gulf of Mexico through
Thursday night. A strong cold front will move into the NW Gulf on
Friday morning, and then become stationary from Fort Myers to near
24N90W to the Bay of Campeche by Saturday evening. Strong winds
and building seas are expected behind this front. It is possible
that NW to N winds may reach minimal gale force, from late Friday
night through Saturday night, in the far western Gulf of Mexico S
of 26N. It is likely that scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms
will precede the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from a 25N63W Atlantic Ocean
cyclonic circulation center, southwestward, through the Mona
Passage, into the central Caribbean Sea, to eastern Panama. Upper
level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from Central
America eastward. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is within
300 nm to 400 nm, on the western side of the trough. Isolated
moderate rainshowers are between 60W and 74W.

Two tropical waves are over the Caribbean Sea. See above.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N between 74W in northern
Colombia, through eastern Panama, beyond southern Costa Rica, into
the eastern Pacific Ocean. Rainshowers are possible from 12N
southward from 74W westward.

Central Atlantic Ocean surface high pressure will weaken as it
shifts SE during the next few days. Generally light to moderate
trade winds are expected for the next several days. A surface
trough, currently just E of the Windward Islands, will produce
rainshowers and thunderstorms, some possibly with gusty winds,
across much of the NE Caribbean Sea through Thursday. NE swell
in the tropical Atlantic Ocean waters will be replaced by a new
set of NE swell from Friday night through Sunday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front is inland, in the southeastern U.S.A., from
South Carolina to Georgia. Upper level SW wind flow, and broken
to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate rainshowers,
are to the west and northwest of the line that passes through
Bermuda, to 27N70W, to Cuba near 21N76W.

An upper level trough extends from a 25N63W Atlantic Ocean
cyclonic circulation center, southwestward, through the Mona
Passage, into the central Caribbean Sea, to eastern Panama.
Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from
Central America eastward. A surface trough is along 59W/60W
from 20N to 27N. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is within
300 nm to 400 nm, on the western side of the trough. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 25N to
27N between 57W and 62W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are
elsewhere from 20N northward from 50W westward.

A Bermuda-to-central Florida surface ridge will retreat eastward,
in response to cold fronts that will move off the U.S.A. eastern
seaboard, one front on Wednesday and a second front on Saturday.
The second cold front is expected to move across the NW section of
the area on Saturday and Saturday night, followed by fresh to
strong NE winds and building seas. Gentle to moderate winds will
continue across the remainder of the forecast waters through
Sunday night. NE long period swell in the eastern waters will
subside through Thursday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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