[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Sat Nov 3 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 30W/31W from 14N
southward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers, in the ITCZ, are from 05N to 10N between 30W and
35W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 51W/52W from 15N
southward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers, in the ITCZ, are from 10N to 12N between 47W and
51W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 66W/67W from 17N southward.
Disorganized isolated moderate rainshowers are between 60W and
70W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N15W, to 10N20W. The ITCZ continues from 10N20W, to
07N30W, and from 06N32W to 06N45W to 07N50W, and from 07N53W to
the coast of 07N58W near the coast of Guyana. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 14N southward
from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 1500 UTC, a cold front extends from the Straits of Florida
near 25N80W to 23N84W. A stationary front continues to the NE
Yucatan Peninsula near 21N87W. Scattered moderate convection is
within 60 nm of the fronts. A 1023 mb high is centered over S
Florida near 31N84W.

Moderate to fresh north-northeast winds behind the front will
become east to southeast winds tonight into Sun as the front
dissipates and while high pressure over the area slides eastward.
These winds will continue through Tue when are forecast to become
east light to moderate winds ahead of the next cold front expected
to move off Texas coast early Tue and reach from the NE Gulf to
near 26N91W and stationary to near Brownsville Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the W Caribbean. See above. A broad area
of high pressure centered over the west Atlantic extends across
most of the basin. 10-20 kt tradewinds are over the remainder of
the Caribbean Sea. Isolated moderate convection is over the SW
Caribbean south of 11N between 76W-83W. This convection is due to
the eastern extent of the Eastern Pacific monsoon trough.
Elsewhere, widely scattered moderate convection is along the
coasts of Honduras and Nicaragua from 12N-16N between 81W-85W.

High pressure north of the area over the central Atlantic will
shift eastward through Mon. Strong trades along the coast of
Colombia will diminish this afternoon, then pulse back up tonight
before diminishing on Sun morning. Strong trades will pulse within
about 60 nm south of central Hispaniola tonight through Sun
morning. Elsewhere, trades will weaken Tue and Wed. A stationary
front across the Yucatan Channel will gradually dissipate through
Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 32N75W to the Straits of
Florida near 25N80W. Scattered moderate convection is from 27N-32N
between 74W-78W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the
remainder of the front. A western Atlantic 1033 mb high is
centered near 37N48W. A stationary front enters the central
Atlantic near 32N36W and extends to 20N50W to 18N64W. Widely
scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the front S of
27N. An eastern Atlantic 1030 mb high is centered near 35N25W.

The cold front will weaken and stall this evening then gradually
shift northward on Sunday. The central Atlantic stationary front
will dissipate this weekend.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
mrf/nr/mt
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