[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040538
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
137 AM EDT Sun Nov 4 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 31W/32W from 14N
southward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers, in the ITCZ, are from 05N to 10N between 30W and 37W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 52W/53W from 15N
southward. Isolated moderate rainshowers, in the ITCZ, are from
15N southward between 50W and 54W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 67W/68W from 17N
southward. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is about
equidistant between the SW coast of Puerto Rico and the coast of
Venezuela that is along 70W, about 190 nm to 200 nm away from each
point. It is not easy to discern rainshowers that are only related
to the tropical wave, given the cyclonic wind flow that is around
the upper level cyclonic circulation center.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N15W, to 11N17W and to 10N20W. The ITCZ continues
from 10N20W, to 08N25W and 07N30W, from 07N34W to 07N40W, to
07N52W, and to 07N58W near the coast of Guyana. Disorganized widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 15N
southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The current stationary front passes through the Straits of
Florida, to 23N88W about 75 nm to the north of the Yucatan
Peninsula, curving toward 21N92W, and to the northern part of the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Upper level SW wind
flow spans the entire Gulf of Mexico. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers are from 26N southward from 90W
eastward. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere to the SW of
the line that passes through 30N85W to the Deep South of Texas at
its border with Mexico.

A surface ridge passes through the Florida Big Bend and the NE
corner of the Gulf of Mexico, through the central Gulf of Mexico,
to the coastal plains of Mexico near 22N98W.

Moderate to fresh northeast winds behind the stationary front
will shift to east to southeast late tonight and Sunday, as the
front dissipates, and while high pressure in the area slides
eastward. Winds become mainly southerly, gentle to moderate in
speeds, on Monday in much of the area. These winds shift to the
southwest in the NW Gulf of Mexico late, from Monday night into
Tuesday, as a weak cold front moves across the NW and north-
central waters. Wednesday: the cold front is expected to reach
from the NE Gulf of Mexico to 26N91W, and stationary from there
to Brownsville Texas. This front will lift northward as a warm
front on Thursday, as yet another cold front approaches eastern
Texas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that
ended at 13/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 1.14 in
Guadeloupe, and 0.25 in Curacao.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is about equidistant
between the SW coast of Puerto Rico and the coast of Venezuela
that is along 70W, about 190 nm to 200 nm away from each point.
Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from the
Windward Passage eastward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong rainshowers cover the area that is from 16N to 21N between
60W and 70W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are in the waters from
16N between 60W and 71W.

The monsoon trough is along 08N75W in Colombia, beyond Panama and
07N81W, and into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Isolated moderate
rainshowers are from 14N southward from 75W westward.

A stationary front remains in the SE corner of the Gulf of Mexico.
Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 18N northward
from 83W westward.

Surface high pressure, that is to the north of the area in the
central Atlantic Ocean, will shift eastward through Monday.
Strong trade winds along the coast of Colombia will diminish early
on Sunday. Strong trade winds will pulse within 60 nm to the south
of central Hispaniola, through tonight before diminishing on
Monday. The trade winds will weaken from Tuesday through Thursday.
A stationary front that is across the Yucatan Channel will
dissipate gradually through Sunday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front passes through 32N73W, across the NW Bahamas,
and beyond the Straits of Florida, into the south central Gulf of
Mexico. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated
moderate rainshowers are to the NW of the line that passes through
32N68W to 23N79W at the coast of Cuba.

A dissipating stationary front is in the central Atlantic Ocean,
along 32N38W to 28N41W to 23N44W. A surface trough is along
47W/48W from 15N to 23N. An upper level cyclonic circulation
center is near 23N51W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the
Atlantic Ocean from 19N to 32N between 40W and 60W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 23N to 27N
between 46W and 50W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere
from 21N to 27N between 45W and 53W.

The current 32N73W-to-the Straits of Florida stationary front will
weaken through Sunday. Its remnants will lift northward as a warm
front through Sunday night. Scattered rainshowers, that are
associated with this boundary and its remnants, will continue to
affect the northwestern waters through Monday. A stationary front
extending along 19N to the east of 63W will dissipate gradually
through Sunday night. Fresh winds with seas to 9 feet are expected
in the SE waters through Sunday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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