[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031735
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
135 PM EDT Sat Nov 3 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends its axis along 30W from 02N-13N, moving W
at 10 kt. This wave is noted in model guidance at 700 mb. SSMI
TPW imagery shows high moisture content associated with it. Widely
scattered moderate convection is from 02N-10N between 20W-33W.

A tropical wave extends its axis along 50W from 03N-13N, moving W
at 15 kt. This wave is also noted in model guidance at 700 mb,
and SSMI TPW imagery shows high moisture content associated with
it. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 07N-11N between
47W-55W. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 120 nm of the
wave axis.

A tropical wave extends its axis along 66W from 05N-15N, moving W
at 10-15 kts. This wave is noted in model guidance at 700 mb.
SSMI TPW imagery depicts moderate to high moisture content near
and east of the wave axis. Widely scattered moderate convection is
N of the wave from 14N-20N between 58W-70W to include the Leeward
Islands and Puerto Rico. Scattered showers are noted elsewhere
within 180 nm of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is analyzed from 09N13W to 09N18W. The ITCZ
extends from 09N18W to 07N28W, and continues W of a tropical wave
near 06N31W to 06N49W. The ITCZ extends W of another tropical wave
from 06N52W to 06N53W. Aside from the showers and convection
related to the tropical waves, widely scattered moderate
convection is from 00N-06N between 00W-06W, and from 09N-12N
between 38W-44W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 1500 UTC, a cold front extends from the Straits of Florida
near 25N80W to 23N84W. A stationary front continues to the NE
Yucatan Peninsula near 21N87W. Scattered moderate convection is
within 60 nm of the fronts. A 1023 mb high is centered over S
Florida near 31N84W.

Moderate to fresh north-northeast winds behind the front will
become east to southeast winds tonight into Sun as the front
dissipates and while high pressure over the area slides eastward.
These winds will continue through Tue when are forecast to become
east light to moderate winds ahead of the next cold front expected
to move off Texas coast early Tue and reach from the NE Gulf to
near 26N91W and stationary to near Brownsville Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the W Caribbean. See above. A broad area
of high pressure centered over the west Atlantic extends across
most of the basin. 10-20 kt tradewinds are over the remainder of
the Caribbean Sea. Isolated moderate convection is over the SW
Caribbean south of 11N between 76W-83W. This convection is due to
the eastern extent of the Eastern Pacific monsoon trough.
Elsewhere, widely scattered moderate convection is along the
coasts of Honduras and Nicaragua from 12N-16N between 81W-85W.

High pressure north of the area over the central Atlantic will
shift eastward through Mon. Strong trades along the coast of
Colombia will diminish this afternoon, then pulse back up tonight
before diminishing on Sun morning. Strong trades will pulse within
about 60 nm south of central Hispaniola tonight through Sun
morning. Elsewhere, trades will weaken Tue and Wed. A stationary
front across the Yucatan Channel will gradually dissipate through
Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 32N75W to the Straits of
Florida near 25N80W. Scattered moderate convection is from 27N-32N
between 74W-78W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the
remainder of the front. A western Atlantic 1033 mb high is
centered near 37N48W. A stationary front enters the central
Atlantic near 32N36W and extends to 20N50W to 18N64W. Widely
scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the front S of
27N. An eastern Atlantic 1030 mb high is centered near 35N25W.

The cold front will weaken and stall this evening then gradually
shift northward on Sunday. The central Atlantic stationary front
will dissipate this weekend.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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