[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030004
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
804 PM EDT Fri Nov 2 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave was repositioned on this map. Its axis extends
along 25W from 01N-12N. This wave is noted in model guidance at
700 mb and TPW imagery shows high moisture content associated
with it. Scattered moderate convection is present south of 10N.

A tropical wave was added to this analysis, with axis along 45W
from 03N-13N. This wave is also noted in model guidance at 700 mb
and TPW imagery shows high moisture content associated with it.
Scattered showers are noted along the wave's axis.

A tropical wave extends its axis along 62W from 03N-13N, moving
west at around 10-15 kts. This wave is noted in model guidance at
700 mb. TPW imagery depicts moderate to high moisture content
near and east of the wave axis. Scattered showers are noted south
of 10N affecting Venezuela.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is analyzed from 09N13W to 06N20W to 07N28W.
The ITCZ extends from 07N33W to 09N56W. Aside from the showers
related to the two tropical waves, scattered showers are within
120 nm on the northern side of the boundary. Scattered moderate
convection are noted 210 nm on either side of the monsoon trough
between 10W-27W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from 30N83W to 19N92W. An upper level trough
entering the Southeast Plains is enhancing this feature.
Scattered moderate to strong convection extends 210 nm southeast
of the front.

The front will stall from southern Florida to Cancun, Mexico
tonight, then gradually dissipate on Sat as E to SE return flow
develops across the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad area of high pressure centered over the west Atlantic
extends across most of the basin. To the south, scattered
moderate convection is observed over SW Caribbean south of 12N
between 73W-84W, to the coast of Nicaragua. This convection is
due to the eastern extent of the Eastern Pacific monsoon trough.

The western Atlantic surface high will continue to shift eastward
through the weekend and produce fresh tradewinds east of 80W,
especially the south-central Caribbean through Saturday evening.
These winds will be strongest at night close to the coast of
Colombia. A Gulf of Mexico cold front will stall and weaken near
the Yucatan Channel Sat morning. Trades will diminish Sun and Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A western Atlantic 1029 mb high is centered near 35N54W. A cold
front enters the central Atlantic near 31N37W and extends to
20N49W to 20N67W. Scattered showers are within 130 nm on either
side of the front mainly north of 22N. An eastern Atlantic 1030
mb high is centered near 38N17W producing fair weather.

The front will dissipate this weekend. Another front will enter
the western Atlantic this weekend. This front is expected to
weaken and stall from near 31N74W to southern Florida Sat evening
then gradually shift northward on Sun.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

MTT/ERA
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