[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021747
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
147 PM EDT Fri Nov 2 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends its axis along 29W from 01N-12N, moving
west at around 15 kts. This wave is noted in model guidance at 700
mb and TPW imagery show high moisture content associated with it.
Scattered moderate convection is present over the northern half
of the wave between 27W-32W.

A tropical wave extends its axis along 60W from 03N-12N, moving
west at around 15 kts. This wave is also noted in model guidance
at 700 mb. TPW imagery depicts moderate to high moisture content
near and east of the wave axis. Scattered showers extend 120 nm
east of the wave axis and along the coast of Guyana.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is analyzed from 09N13W to 06N20W to 07N28W.
The ITCZ extends from 07N33W to 09N56W. Aside from the showers
related to the two tropical waves, scattered showers are within
120 nm on the northern side of the boundary. Scattered moderate
convection are noted 210 nm on either side of the monsoon trough
between 10W-27W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from 30N84W to 19N92W to 18N95W near the
coast of Mexico. An upper level trough entering the Southeast
Plains is enhancing this feature. Scattered moderate to strong
convection extends 210 nm southeast of the front.

The front will move slowly southeast across the basin today,
with fresh to strong N to NE winds expected west of the front.
The front will stall from southern Florida to Cancun, Mexico
tonight, then gradually dissipate on Sat as E to SE return flow
develops across the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad area of high pressure centered over the west Atlantic
extends across most of the basin. To the south, scattered
moderate convection is observed over SW Caribbean south of 12N
between 73W-84W, to the coast of Nicaragua. This convection is
due to the eastern extent of the Eastern Pacific monsoon trough.

The western Atlantic surface high will continue to shift eastward
through the weekend and produce fresh tradewinds east of 80W,
especially the south-central Caribbean through Saturday evening.
These winds will be strongest at night close to the coast of
Colombia. A Gulf of Mexico cold front will stall and weaken near
the Yucatan Channel Sat morning. Trades will diminish Sun and Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A western Atlantic 1026 mb high is centered near 35N55W. A cold
front enters the central Atlantic near 31N37W and extends to
20N47W. A stationary front continues from 20N47W to 19N63W.
Scattered showers are within 130 nm on either side of the front.
Scattered showers are noted 70 nm on either side of the boundary
between 50W-62W. An eastern Atlantic 1031 mb high is centered
near 37N17W producing fair weather.

The cold front will stall and dissipate this weekend. The front
is expected to weaken and stall from near 31N74W to southern
Florida Sat evening then gradually shift northward on Sun.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Torres/Formosa
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