[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021204
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
804 AM EDT Fri Nov 2 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends its axis along 28W from 01N-12N, moving
west at about 10-15 kt. This wave is noted in model guidance at
700 mb and TPW imagery show high moisture content associated with
it. Scattered showers are noted over the northern half of the wave
between 27W-30W.

A tropical wave extends its axis along 58W from 03N-12N, moving
west at 10 kt. This wave is also noted in model guidance at 700
mb. TPW imagery depicts moderate to high moisture content near and
east of the wave axis. Scattered showers extend 100 nm east of
the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is analyzed from 10N14W to 08N25W. The ITCZ
extends from 08N33W to 09N55W. Aside from the showers related to
the two tropical waves, scattered moderate convection are within
70 nm on either side of the boundary between 40W-49W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 0900 UTC, a cold front extends from 30N86W to 18N95W. An
upper level trough entering the Southeast Plains is enhancing this
feature. Scattered moderate to strong convection extends 200 nm
south of the front.

The front will move slowly southeast across the basin today, then
stall across the Straits of Florida to Cancun, Mexico tonight,
then gradually dissipate on Sat as E to SE return flow develops
across the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad area of high pressure centered over the west Atlantic
extends across most of the basin. To the south, scattered
moderate convection is seen over the SW Caribbean south of 12N
between 75W-82W due to the eastern extent of the Eastern Pacific
monsoon trough.

The western Atlantic surface high will continue to shift eastward
through the weekend and produce fresh tradewinds east of 80W,
especially the south-central Caribbean through Saturday evening.
These winds will be strongest at night close to the coast of
Colombia. A Gulf of Mexico cold front will stall and weaken near
the Yucatan Channel Sat morning. Trades will diminish Sun and Mon.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A western Atlantic 1026 mb high is centered near 33N59W. A cold
front enters the central Atlantic near 31N38W and extends to
24N42W to 20N46W. A stationary front continues from 20N46W to
19N63W. Scattered showers are within 100 nm of the front N of
26N. Scattered showers are noted 60 nm south of the boundary
between 50W-62W. An eastern Atlantic 1028 mb high is centered
near 37N17W producing fair weather.

The cold front will stall and dissipate this weekend. Another
cold front will move east of north Florida by early Saturday. The
front is expected to weaken and stall from near 31N74W to Palm
Beach, FL Saturday evening before shifting northwest through the
rest of the weekend.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Torres/Formosa
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