[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020520
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
120 AM EDT Fri Nov 2 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends its axis along 27W from 01N-12N, moving
west at about 10-15 kt. This wave is noted in model guidance at
700 mb and TPW imagery show high moisture content associated with
it. Scattered showers are noted over the northern half of the wave
between 20W-31W.

A tropical wave extends its axis along 57W from 02N-12N, moving
west at 10 kt. This wave is also noted in model guidance at 700
mb. TPW imagery depicts moderate to high moisture content near and
east of the wave axis. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N-
11N between 55W-60W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is analyzed from 10N14W to 06N24W. The ITCZ
extends from 06N29W to 08N55W. Aside from the showers related to
the two tropical waves, scattered showers are within 105 nm on
either side of both boundaries.

GULF OF MEXICO...

At this time, a cold front extends from 29N90W to 19N96W.  An
upper level trough across the central plains is enhancing this
feature. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 150 nm
south of the front. Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to
fresh winds in the vicinity of the front mainly west of 85W.

The front will continue moving southeast across the basin today,
then stall across the Straits of Florida to Cancun, Mexico by
Saturday morning before shifting NW through Sunday and lifting N
of area by early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad area of high pressure centered over the west Atlantic
extends across most of the basin. To the south, scattered
moderate convection is seen over the SW Caribbean south of 11N
between 75W-82W due to the eastern extent of the Eastern Pacific
monsoon trough.

The western Atlantic surface high will continue to shift eastward
through the weekend and produce fresh to strong tradewinds across
the Caribbean east of 80W, especially the south- central
Caribbean. These winds will be strongest at night close to the
coast of Colombia. A Gulf of Mexico cold front will move SE
reaching the Yucatan Channel and far NW Caribbean this weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A western Atlantic 1025 mb high is centered near 34N62W. A cold
front enters the central Atlantic near 31N39W and extends to
20N50W to 21N70W. Scattered showers are within 150 nm of the
front N of 20N. An eastern Atlantic 1027 mb high is centered near
38N19W producing fair weather.

The cold front will stall and dissipate this weekend. Another
cold front will move east of north Florida by early Saturday. The
front is expected to weaken and stall from near 31N74W to Palm
Beach, FL Saturday evening before shifting northwest through the
rest of the weekend.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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