[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020002
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
801 PM EDT Thu Nov 1 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Strong Gulf of Mexico Cold Front...

A cold front is over the NW Gulf of Mexico with a pre-frontal
squall line. Brief near gale-force winds are possible in the warm
section near and over the Tallahassee coastal waters through
tonight. Refer to the Offshore Waters Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers OFFNT4/FZNT4 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends its axis along 25W from 01N-12N, moving
west at about 10 kt. This wave is noted in model guidance at 700
mb and TPW imagery show high moisture content associated with this
wave. Scattered showers are noted between 17W-31W.

A tropical wave extends its axis along 56W from 02N-12N, moving
west at 10-15 kt. This wave is also noted in model guidance at
700 mb. TPW imagery depicts moderate to high moisture content near
and east of the wave axis. Scattered moderate convection is from
04N-11N between 54W-60W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is analyzed from 09N14W to 06N20W. The ITCZ
extends from 05N27W to 06N40W to 08N52W, then resumes from 08N56W
to 07N58W. Aside from the showers related to the two tropical
waves, scattered showers are within 240 nm north of both
boundaries.

GULF OF MEXICO...

See Special Features section above for information about the
cold front and squall line moving across the basin. At this time,
the cold front extends from 29N91W 21N97W. The squall line is
ahead of the front from 30N86W to 24N94W. An upper level trough
across the central plains is enhancing these features.

The front will reach from near Cedar Key, FL to the NE Yucatan
Peninsula Fri evening, then stall across the Straits of Florida to
Cancun, Mexico Sat morning before shifting NW through Sun and
lifting N of area Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen over the
SW Caribbean south of 13N between 75W-82W due to the eastern
extent of the Eastern Pacific monsoon trough. The surface
pressure gradient will help freshen the tradewinds across the
central Caribbean. A western Atlantic high near 33N66W will
continue to shift eastward through the weekend and produce fresh
to strong tradewinds across the Caribbean east of 80W, especially
the south-central Caribbean. These winds will be strongest at
night close to the coast of Colombia. A Gulf of Mexico cold front
will move SE reaching the Yucatan Channel and far NW Caribbean
this weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A western Atlantic 1024 mb high is centered near 33N64W. A cold
front enters the central Atlantic near 31N43W and extends to
21N50W to 21N70W. Scattered showers are within 150 nm of the
front N of 20N. An eastern Atlantic 1027 mb high is centered near
35N24W producing fair weather.

The cold front will stall and dissipate this weekend. Moderate
swell associated with post tropical cyclone Oscar over the central
Atlc will affect waters E of the Bahamas through Fri. Another
cold front will move E of N Florida early Sat preceded by strong S
flow Fri. The front is expected to weaken and stall from near
31N74W to Palm Beach, FL Sat evening before shifting NW Sat night
through Sun and eventually N of the area Sun night. A N to S
trough over the Atlc near 55W Sun afternoon will shift W to 63W by
Mon evening.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa/ERA
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