[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011753
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
153 PM EDT Thu Nov 1 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Strong Gulf of Mexico Cold Front...

A cold front is over the NW Gulf of Mexico with a pre-frontal
squall line. Brief near gale-force winds are possible in the warm
section near and over the Tallahassee coastal waters until
02/0000 UTC. Refer to the Offshore Waters Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers OFFNT4/FZNT4 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends its axis along 24W from 01N-12N, moving
west at about 10 kt. This wave is noted in model guidance at 700
mb and TPW imagery show high moisture content associated with this
wave. Scattered showers are from 10N-12N between 21W-26W.

A tropical wave extends its axis along 54W from 02N-12N, moving
west at 10 kt. This wave is also noted in model guidance at 700
mb. TPW imagery depicts moderate to high moisture content near and
east of the wave axis. Scattered showers extend within 180 nm on
either side of the wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is analyzed from 09N14W to 06N20W. The ITCZ
extends from 05N27W to 06N40W to 08N52W, then resumes from 08N56W
to 07N58W. Aside from the showers related to the two tropical
waves, scattered showers are within 240 nm north of both
boundaries.

GULF OF MEXICO...

See Special Features section above. A cold front extends from SW
Louisiana near 29N93W to the coast of Mexico near 25N97W. A squall
line is ahead of the front with numerous strong convection. An
upper level trough across the central plains is enhancing the Gulf
of Mexico front.

The front will reach from near Biloxi, MS to just north of
Veracruz, Mexico this evening, from near Cedar Key, FL to the NE
Yucatan Peninsula Fri evening, then stall across the Straits of
Florida to Cancun, Mexico Sat morning before shifting NW through
Sun and lifting N of area Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen over the
SW Caribbean south of 13N between 75W-82W due to the eastern
extent of the Eastern Pacific monsoon trough. The surface
pressure gradient will help freshen the tradewinds across the
central Caribbean. A western Atlantic high near 33N66W will
continue to shift eastward through the weekend and produce fresh
to strong tradewinds across the Caribbean east of 80W, especially
the south-central Caribbean. These winds will be strongest at
night close to the coast of Colombia. A Gulf of Mexico cold front
will move SE reaching the Yucatan Channel and far NW Caribbean
this weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A western Atlantic 1024 mb high is centered near 33N66W. A cold
front enters the central Atlantic near 30N43W and extends to
22N51W to 20N68W. Isolated moderate convection is within 150 nm
of the front N of 21N. An eastern Atlantic 1027 mb high is
centered near 35N24W producing fair weather.

The cold front is moving E/SE from the central Atlc to just N of
Dominican Republic today. This front will stall and dissipate this
weekend. Moderate swell associated with post tropical cyclone
Oscar over the central Atlc will affect waters E of the Bahamas
through Fri. Another cold front will move E of N Florida early Sat
preceded by strong S flow Fri. The front is expected to weaken
and stall from near 31N74W to Palm Beach, FL Sat evening before
shifting NW Sat night through Sun and eventually N of the area Sun
night. A N to S trough over the Atlc near 55W Sun afternoon will
shift W to 63W by Mon evening.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Torres/Formosa
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