[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011153
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
752 AM EDT Thu Nov 1 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Strong Gulf of Mexico Cold Front...

A cold front is over the NW Gulf of Mexico this morning and will
continue to move southeast through the basin. A pre-frontal
squall line with strong thunderstorms is within 180 nm ahead of
the front. This will continue to enhance convection mainly north
of 27N. Brief gale-force winds are possible in the squalls, with
seas ranging between 6-9 ft within 300 nm east of the front.
Refer to the Offshore Waters Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
OFFNT4/FZNT4 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends its axis along 23W from 01N-12N, moving
west at about 10 kt. This wave is noted in model guidance at 700
mb and TPW imagery show high moisture content associated with this
wave. Scattered showers are within 120 nm on either side of the
axis.

A tropical wave extends its axis along 52W from 02N to 13N,
moving west at 10-15 kt. This wave is also noted in model guidance
at 700 mb. TPW imagery depicts moderate to high moisture content
near and east of the wave axis. Scattered showers extend 120 nm
on either side of the wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is analyzed from 11N15W to 07N21W. The ITCZ
extends from 03N24W to 05N34W to 08N50W. Aside from the showers
related to the two tropical waves, scattered showers are within
240 nm north of both boundaries.

GULF OF MEXICO...

See Special Features section above. As of 0900 UTC, a cold front
extends from SW Louisiana near 30N93W to South Texas near 26N97W.
A squall line is distinct ahead of the front with numerous strong
convection and near gale force winds. An upper level trough
across the central plains and Texas is enhancing the Gulf of
Mexico front. The front will reach from near Biloxi, MS to just
north of Veracruz, Mexico this evening, from near Cedar Key, FL to
the NE Yucatan Peninsula Fri evening, then stall across the
Straits of Florida to Cancun, Mexico Sat morning before shifting
NW through Sun and lifting N of area Mon. For more information in
regards to this feature, see the Special Features section above.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

In the far southwest Caribbean, scattered moderate to strong
convection is south of 11N between 78W-81W due to the eastern
extent of the Eastern Pacific monsoon trough. Strengthening high
pressure over the western Atlantic through this afternoon will
help freshen the tradewinds across the central Caribbean. The high
will then continue to shift eastward through the weekend to
produce fresh to strong tradewinds across the Caribbean east of
80W, especially the south-central Caribbean. These winds will be
strongest at night close to the coast of Colombia. A Gulf of
Mexico cold front will move SE reaching the Yucatan Channel and
far NW Caribbean this weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A western Atlantic 1023 mb high is centered near 32N68W. A cold
front enters the central Atlantic near 32N44W and extends to
25N50W to 22N60W to 21N70W. Isolated moderate convection is
within 90 nm of the front. Scattered showers are elsewhere north
of 26N between 45W-40W. Large north swell will affect the waters
north of 28N east of 25W through this morning due to Post-
Tropical Cyclone Oscar, currently centered north of the area.

The cold front will continue moving east while weakening. Strong
high pressure to the N will shift eastward along 33N. Moderate
swell associated with Oscar over the central Atlantic will affect
waters E of the Bahamas today. Another cold front will move
offshore of N Florida early Sat with strong southerly flow ahead
of it on Friday. The front is expected to weaken from near 31N73W
to the Florida Keys on Saturday before shifting northwest through
Sunday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Torres/Formosa
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