[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030511
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
111 AM EDT Sat Nov 3 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends its axis along 27W from 02N-13N. This
wave is noted in model guidance at 700 mb and TPW imagery shows
high moisture content associated with it. Scattered moderate
convection is present south of 10N.

A tropical wave extends its axis along 47W from 03N-13N. This
wave is also noted in model guidance at 700 mb and TPW imagery
shows high moisture content associated with it. Scattered showers
are noted along the wave's axis.

A tropical wave extends its axis along 64W from 05N-13N, moving
west at around 10-15 kts. This wave is noted in model guidance at
700 mb. TPW imagery depicts moderate to high moisture content near
and east of the wave axis. Scattered showers are noted south of
10N affecting Venezuela.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is analyzed from 07N12W to 05N32W. The ITCZ
extends from 05N32W to 06N44W. Aside from the showers related to
the tropical waves, scattered showers are within 120 nm on the
northern side of the monsoon trough between 19W-30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends across the eastern portion of the basin from
29N83W to 19N93W. A surface ridge is building in the wake of the
front across the western Gulf. Scattered showers are noted along
and south of the front affecting the Yucatan Peninsula/Channel
and the Florida Peninsula.

The front will stall from southern Florida to the Yucatan
Peninsula overnight, then gradually dissipate on Saturday as an
easterly return flow develops across the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad area of high pressure centered over the west Atlantic
extends across most of the basin. To the south, scattered
moderate convection is observed over SW Caribbean south of 12N
between 73W-84W, to the coast of Nicaragua. This convection is
due to the eastern extent of the Eastern Pacific monsoon trough.

The western Atlantic surface high will continue to shift eastward
through the weekend and produce fresh tradewinds east of 80W,
especially the south-central Caribbean through Saturday evening.
These winds will be strongest at night close to the coast of
Colombia. A Gulf of Mexico cold front will stall and weaken near
the Yucatan Channel this morning. Trades will diminish by Sunday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A western Atlantic 1031 mb high is centered near 36N48W. A
stationary front enters the central Atlantic near 31N37W and
extends to 20N48W to 19N63W. Scattered showers are within 130 nm
on either side of the front mainly north of 20N between 42W-50W.
An eastern Atlantic 1029 mb high is centered near 37N19W
producing fair weather.

The stationary front will dissipate this weekend. A cold front
will enter the western Atlantic today enhancing convection across
the western Atlantic. This front is expected to weaken and stall
from near 31N74W to southern Florida this evening then gradually
shift northward on Sunday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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