[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 PM EST Tue Jan 30 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A surface ridge building in the wake
of a low pressure system centered in the NW Atlc and low surface
pressure in northern sections of South America will support minimal
gale-force winds pulsing at night near the coast of Colombia
through Thu night. Expect sea heights to range from 10 feet to 13
feet during that period. Please read the latest NHC High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 06N10W to 04N13W. The ITCZ continues from 04N13W to 01N32W
and 01N46W. Scattered moderate to locally strong convection is
within 150 nm either side of the ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A strong surface ridge extends southward from western Tennesee,
across the Gulf to the NW Caribbean. A tight gradient between a
low pressure system over the NW Atlc and the ridge continue to
support N to NE fresh to strong winds across the eastern basin. Strong
to near gale force NW to N winds are noted S of 21N W of 95W. Winds
and seas are forecast to diminish from W to E across the Gulf
region tonight. The ridge will shift E on Wednesday and Thursday,
allowing SE return flow to set up across the entire basin by
Thursday afternoon. The next cold front is forecast to enter the
northern Gulf waters on Friday.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details regarding
gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia.

A cold front passes through central Cuba near 21N78W SW to the
Gulf of Honduras near 15N86W. Scattered rainshowers are limited to
the Gulf of Honduras. Isolated showers are within 120 nm either
side of the front. Strong to minimal gale force winds are
expected near the coast of Colombia primarily late at night and
into the early morning hours through Thursday night. The current
cold front will reach from eastern Cuba to the eastern Gulf of
Honduras tonight, then will remain nearly stationary through
Wednesday evening, and then dissipate on Thursday. Fresh to strong
N-NE winds and building seas are expected NW of the front.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N69W, across the NW Bahamas and the
southern part of Andros Island, and beyond Cuba near 22N80W, into
the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 30 nm to 60 nm
on either side of 29N69W 23N74W. rainshowers are possible
elsewhere to the NW of the line that passes through 32N58W to
20N70W.

A surface ridge passes through 32N57W to 26N61W, beyond the
eastern part of the Dominican Republic.

A deep layer occluded low pressure center is near 25N50W, 1012 mb.
Expect fresh-to-strong winds within 330 nm NW quadrant of the
1012 mb low pressure center, and to the E of the line from 22N40W
to 31N43W. The sea heights will range from 9 feet to 13 feet.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong from 22N to
30N between 39W and 43W. isolated moderate elsewhere from 20N
northward between 38W and 53W.

An eastern Atlantic Ocean surface ridge extends from a 1047 mb
high pressure center that is near 41N27W, passing through 32N28W,
to the Cabo Verde Islands. A 1016 mb low pressure center is near
29N13W between the coast of southern Morocco and the Canary
Islands. The low pressure center is forecast to dissipate during
the next 24 hours. The Meteo-France forecast calls for strong to
near-gale winds in the areas of CASABLANCA and MADEIRA until
31/1200 UTC. The low is forecast to dissipate during the next 24
hours.

The current cold front will reach from 24N65W to the easternmost
tip of Cuba by Wednesday evening, where it will remain nearly
stationary through Thursday evening. Fresh to strong NW-N winds
will dominate the entire area that is to the west of the front,
including the Old Bahama Channel by this evening. Similar marine
conditions are expected early on Wednesday. High pressure in the
wake of the front will dominate the region through Thursday.
Another cold front is forecast to arrive in the northern waters
on Friday afternoon.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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