[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301728
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1228 PM EST Tue Jan 30 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A surface ridge in the west-central
Atlantic Ocean and low surface pressures in northern sections of
South America are supporting minimal gale-force winds, that will
pulse each night near the coast of Colombia. Expect sea heights
to range from 10 feet to 13 feet. The winds will reach gale-force
at night and last until dawn the next day, and then continue that
way each night through Thursday night. Please read the latest NHC
High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 06N10W to 05N13W. The ITCZ continues from 05N13W to 01N30W
and 01N46W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong
from 06N southward from 50W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A strong surface ridge extends southward from southern Texas,
along the coast of Mexico to a 1033 mb high pressure center that
is near 21N98W, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico.
One cold front has moved through the basin completely, and now it
is in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. A second cold front now
passes through the Florida Panhandle/the Florida Big Bend, into
the N central Gulf of Mexico, to the middle Texas Gulf coast.
This front is bringing a second shot of comparatively colder air.

Strong to near gale force winds are expected in the SW corner of
the Gulf of Mexico near Veracruz, Mexico today. Winds and seas
are forecast to diminish from W to E across the Gulf region this
evening and tonight. The ridge will shift E on Wednesday and
Thursday, allowing SE return flow to set up across the entire
basin by Thursday afternoon. The next cold front is forecast to
enter the northern Gulf waters on Friday.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details regarding
gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia.

A cold front passes through Cuba near 22N80W, to 20N84W, to the
NW coastal sections of Honduras, and into central Guatemala.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers
cover the NW Caribbean Sea to the NW of the line that runs from
the southern coast of Cuba along 80W to eastern Honduras.

Strong to minimal gale force winds are expected near the coast of
Colombia primarily late at night and into the early morning hours
through Thursday night. The current cold front will reach from
eastern Cuba to the eastern Gulf of Honduras this evening, then
will remain nearly stationary through Wednesday evening, and then
dissipate on Thursday. Fresh to strong N-NE winds and building
seas are expected NW of the front.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N69W, across the NW Bahamas and the
southern part of Andros Island, and beyond Cuba near 22N80W, into
the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 30 nm to 60 nm
on either side of 29N69W 23N74W. rainshowers are possible
elsewhere to the NW of the line that passes through 32N58W to
20N70W.

A surface ridge passes through 32N57W to 26N61W, beyond the
eastern part of the Dominican Republic.

A deep layer occluded low pressure center is near 25N50W, 1012 mb.
Expect fresh-to-strong winds within 330 nm NW quadrant of the
1012 mb low pressure center, and to the E of the line from 22N40W
to 31N43W. The sea heights will range from 9 feet to 13 feet.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong from 22N to
30N between 39W and 43W. isolated moderate elsewhere from 20N
northward between 38W and 53W.

An eastern Atlantic Ocean surface ridge extends from a 1047 mb
high pressure center that is near 41N27W, passing through 32N28W,
to the Cabo Verde Islands. A 1016 mb low pressure center is near
29N13W between the coast of southern Morocco and the Canary
Islands. The low pressure center is forecast to dissipate during
the next 24 hours. The Meteo-France forecast calls for strong to
near-gale winds in the areas of CASABLANCA and MADEIRA until
31/1200 UTC. The low is forecast to dissipate during the next 24
hours.

The current cold front will reach from 24N65W to the easternmost
tip of Cuba by Wednesday evening, where it will remain nearly
stationary through Thursday evening. Fresh to strong NW-N winds
will dominate the entire area that is to the west of the front,
including the Old Bahama Channel by this evening. Similar marine
conditions are expected early on Wednesday. High pressure in the
wake of the front will dominate the region through Thursday.
Another cold front is forecast to arrive in the northern waters
on Friday afternoon.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
mt
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