[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310601
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
101 AM EST Wed Jan 31 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A slightly tighter pressure gradient
between a strong surface ridge building over the SE CONUS in the
wake of a low pressure system centered in the NW Atlc, and low
surface pressure in northern South America will support minimal
gale-force winds pulsing at night near the coast of Colombia
through Thu night. Sea heights to range from 10 feet to 14 feet
during that period. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 06N10W to 05N14W. The ITCZ continues from 05N14W to 01N30W
to 0N50W. Scattered moderate to locally strong convection is
within 165 nm either side of the ITCZ between 13W and 35W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A strong surface ridge extends southward from Ohio SW to
Mississippi, across the Gulf of Mexico and into the far NW Caribbean.
As a cold front in the SW Atlc continue to move SE, NE winds in
the eastern Gulf continue to diminish with the latest scatterometer
pass showing fresh to strong winds mainly S of 28N E of 87W.
Similar winds prevail in the Bay of Campeche. The ridge will
shift E on Wednesday and Thursday, thus allowing SE return flow
to set up across the entire basin by Wed night. The next cold
front is forecast to enter the northern Gulf waters on Friday
morning. The front is forecast to extend from central Florida to
the western-central Gulf waters on Saturday morning when the
portion of the front over the Gulf will stall before transitioning
to a warm front. No significant showers are expected over the
basin with this front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front passes through eastern Cuba near 21N77W where it
stalls and continues SW to the western Gulf of Honduras near
15N88W. Scattered rainshowers are within 75 nm west of the front S
of 20N. Isolated showers are within 90 nm either side of the
remaining front. Strong to minimal gale force winds are expected
near the coast of Colombia primarily late at night and into the
early morning hours through Thursday night as strong high pressure
moves from the SE CONUS to the SW N Atlc and then into the central
Atlc waters. Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details. The
stationary front will continue to weaken today and its remnants
will transition to a shear line at night, which will dissipate on
Thursday. Fresh to strong N-NE winds and building seas are NW of
the front and in the SW basin as noted in latest scatterometer
data. Moderate trades dominate the easter Caribbean with some
localized fresh winds noted near the coast of Venezuela. GOES-16
water vapor imagery show very stable conditions from the lower to
the upper levels, except for the NW Caribbean where convection is
associated with the front.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A system of low pressure with storm force winds in the NW Atlc
waters supports a cold front that enters the SW N Atlc waters from
30N64W to the southern Bahamas to the eastern coast of northern
Cuba where it transitions to a stationary front to the Gulf of
Honduras in the Caribbean. With only shallow moisture in the
vicinity of the front, scattered showers are limited to N of 26N
between 60W and 65W. In the central Atlc, a middle to upper level
low continue to support scattered heavy showers from 20N to 31N
between 38W and 48W. SW of this convection, the reflection of the
low aloft is seen as a 1012 mb low centered near 23N51W with an
associated trough extending from the low SW to 22N56W. There is no
convection associated with these joint features. The remainder
eastern Atlc continues under the influence of the Azores ridge
that anchors by a 1037 mb high just N of the islands. The cold
front will reach from 30N55W to 25N61W tonight and from the last
point it will stall to the approaches of the Windward Passage. Fresh
to strong NW-N winds will dominate the entire area that is to the
west of the front, including the Old Bahama Channel. High
pressure in the wake of the front will dominate the region through
Thursday. Another cold front is forecast to arrive in the
northern waters on Friday evening.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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