[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300550
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EST Tue Jan 30 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The combination of a surface ridge
in the west-central Atlantic and a 1004 mb low in South America
near 10N75W is supporting minimal gale-force winds each night
near the coast of Colombia, with seas in the 10 to 13 ft range.
Expect winds to reach gale-force through early Tuesday, then
continue each night well into the weekend. See the latest NHC
High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
for more details.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: High pressure associated with cool
dry air behind a cold front exiting the Gulf of Mexico will
support gale force winds off the coast of Veracruz tonight south
of 21N and west of 95W, with seas building to 10 to 13 ft. Winds
and seas will diminish during the day Tuesday as high pressure
shifts eastward. See the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from coast of Africa near 07N11W to
06N14W. The ITCZ continues from 06N14W to 00N49W. Scattered
moderate rain showers are south of 04N between 17W and 32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details in reference
to a gale-force wind event in the SW Gulf of Mexico.

A strong surface ridge extends southward from southern Texas
along the coast of Mexico, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of
southern Mexico. A cold front has pushed south of the basin.
Northerly winds will veer NE during the next 24 hours as high
pressure across the southern U.S. shifts east. Winds and seas
will diminish from W to E across the Gulf waters on Tuesday. A
ridge will dominate the region through Thursday. The next cold
front is forecast will enter the northern Gulf on Friday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details regarding
gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia.

A cold front extends from the Straits of Florida to the Yucatan
Channel. The front will push into the NW Caribbean overnight,
then stall from the Windward Passage to Honduras by mid week,
bringing fresh to occasionally strong northerly winds to the NW
Caribbean and the lee of Cuba. Strong high pressure north of the
area is supporting fresh to strong trade winds through much of
the east-central Caribbean, including the Windward Passage. Buoy
and altimeter data indicate sea heights ranging from 8 to 11 ft
in the area of strongest winds. The gradient will relax across
the region as the high pressure shifts eastward ahead of the
cold front in the Yucatan Channel. High pressure building north
of the area behind the front will support fresh to strong trade
winds once again over much of the central and eastern Caribbean
Sea and tropical Atlantic west of 55W later in the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 32N73W across the Straits of Florida
to the Yucatan Channel. A deep layer occluded low pressure
system is centered near 29N48W. Scatterometer data during the
past 4 hours indicates gale force winds are north of 31N ahead
of the cold front, and 25-30 kt winds are in the northern side
of the low in the central Atlantic. Upper level cyclonic wind
flow covers most of the central Atlantic. A surface ridge passes
from 32N60W to Hispaniola, and a ridge in the eastern Atlantic
extends south of 35N between 20W and 38W. A 1016 mb low pressure
center is near 30N12W off the coast of Morocco. The Meteo-France
forecast calls for strong to near-gale winds for the area. The
low is forecast to drift southward during the next 24 hours.

A deepening surface low passing near Cape Hatteras will drag a
cold front across the NW waters tonight. The front will reach
from 32N64W to eastern Cuba Tuesday night, from 32N54W to the
Windward Passage Wednesday night, then stall and slowly weaken
Thursday. High pressure behind the front will prevail over the
region north of 20N through Thursday. Another cold front will
move off the southeast U.s. coast on Friday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Mundell
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