[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301206
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 AM EST Tue Jan 30 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The combination of a surface ridge
in the west-central Atlantic and a 1006 mb low in South America
near 10N75W is supporting minimal gale-force winds pulsing each
night near the coast of Colombia, with seas in the 10 to 13 ft
range. Expect winds to reach gale-force until around dawn today,
then continue each night until at least Friday morning. See the
latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Strong high pressure ridging
southward along the Sierra Madre Oriental mountains behind a cold
front exiting the Gulf of Mexico will support gale force winds
off the coast of Veracruz until around dawn this morning south of
21N and west of 95W, with seas running between 10 and 13 ft.
Winds and seas will diminish during the day Tuesday as high
pressure shifts eastward. See the latest NHC High Seas Forecast
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Liberia on the coast of Africa
near 06N10W to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W to 01N40W to
the coast of Brazil near 01S50W. Scattered moderate and isolated
srong convection is present from 01N to 04N between 09W and 25W
and also 02S to 03N between 36W and 42W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details in reference
to a gale-force wind event in the SW Gulf of Mexico.

A strong surface ridge extends southward from southern Texas
along the coast of Mexico, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of
southern Mexico. One cold front has moved through the basin
completely. A second cold front now passes through the Florida
Panhandle, to SE Louisiana, to the middle Texas Gulf coast. This
front is bringing a second shot of comparatively colder air.

Minimal gale force winds will continue in the SW Gulf near
Veracruz, Mexico through early this morning. The wind speeds and
sea heights are forecast to diminish from W to E across the Gulf
region during the rest of today. The current Texas-to-Isthmus of
Tehuantepec ridge will dominate the area through Thursday. The
next cold front is forecast to enter the northern Gulf waters on
Friday.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details regarding
gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia.

A cold front passes through NW Cuba, to southern Belize, and
central Guatemala. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers cover the NW Caribbean Sea from 15N to 20N from
83W westward.  The front will reach from eastern Cuba to the
Gulf of Honduras this evening, where it will remain nearly
stationary through Wed evening, then dissipate across the basin on
Thu. Fresh to strong N-NE winds and building seas are expected NW
of the front.

Strong high pressure that is to the north of the area is
supporting fresh to strong trade winds through much of the east-
central Caribbean, including the Windward Passage. Buoy and
altimeter data were indicating sea heights ranging from 8 to 11 ft
in the area of strongest winds. The gradient will relax across
the region as the high pressure shifts eastward ahead of the cold
front in the Yucatan Channel. High pressure building north of the
area behind the front will support fresh to strong trade winds
once again over much of the central and eastern Caribbean Sea and
tropical Atlantic west of 55W later in the week.

Strong to minimal gale force winds are expected near the coast of
Colombia primarily late at night and into the early morning hours
through Thursday night.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N71W, across the NW Bahamas, and
beyond NW Cuba, into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 30 nm to 45 nm
on either side of 25N76W beyond 32N67W.

A deep layer occluded low pressure center is near 27N49W.
Scatterometer data during the early-morning hours were indicating
that gale force winds were north of 31N ahead of the cold front,
and 25-30 kt winds were on the northern side of the low in the
central Atlantic Ocean. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers
most of the central Atlantic.

A surface ridge passes through 32N59W, to 26N64W, to Hispaniola.
An eastern Atlantic Ocean surface ridge passes through 32N28W to
the Cabo Verde Islands. A 1015 mb low pressure center is near
29N13W off the coast of southern Morocco. The low pressure center
is forecast to dissipate during the next 24 hours. The Meteo-
France forecast calls for strong to near- gale winds for the area.
The low is forecast to drift southward during the next 24 hours.

The front will reach from 31N65W to eastern Cuba by Tue evening,
from 24N65W to the easternmost tip of Cuba by Wed evening where it
will remain nearly stationary through Thu evening. Fresh to
strong NW-N winds will dominate the entire area west of the front,
including the Old Bahama Channel by this evening. Similar marine
conditions are expected early on Wed. High pressure in the wake of
the front will dominate the region through Thu. Another cold
front is forecast to arrive over the north waters on Fri
afternoon.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
mt
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