[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300002
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 PM EST Mon Jan 29 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A cold front extends from 32N77W to
the coast of Florida near Vero Beach. Scatterometer data at 1530
UTC showed gale force S-SW winds ahead of the front north of 29N
and 25-30 kt winds elsewhere north of 28N east of the front to
75W. The area of gale force winds is expected to shift north of
31N and weaken tonight. See the latest NHC High Seas Forecast
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The combination of a surface ridge
in the west-central Atlantic and lower pressure in South America
is supporting minimal gale-force winds at night near the coast
of Colombia, with seas in the 12 to 15 feet range. Expect winds
to reach gale-force late tonight and early Tuesday, continuing
possibly well into the weekend. See the latest NHC High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more
details.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front reaches from southern
Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula, and southeast of the Isthmus
of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Cool dry air behind the front
will support gale force winds off the coast of Veracruz tonight,
south of 21N and west of 95W, with seas building to 10 to 13 ft.
Winds and seas will diminish during the day on Tuesday as high
pressure builds behind the front. See the latest NHC High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from coast of Africa near 07N12W to
06N14W. The ITCZ continues from 06N14W to 01S41W. Isolated
moderate to locally strong rain showers are from 07N southward
from 49W eastward. Showers are elsewhere from 10N southward from
60W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details in reference
to an upcoming gale-force wind event in the SW Gulf of Mexico.

A surface ridge passes through the Deep South of Texas, to the
coast of Mexico, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern
Mexico.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow, from a trough, covers the Gulf of
Mexico from 28N northward from 90W eastward. Precipitation:
isolated moderate rainshowers are from 25N southward, with the
cold front.

The current cold front will move SE of the area tonight. Winds
and seas will diminish from W to E across the Gulf waters on
Tuesday. A ridge will dominate the region through Thursday. The
next cold front is forecast to enter the northern Gulf Friday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details regarding
the gale-force wind conditions near the coast of Colombia.

A cold front extends from southern Florida to the NW corner of
the Yucatan Peninsula. The front will move into the NW Caribbean
tonight, then stall from the Windward Passage to Honduras by mid
week, bringing fresh to occasionally strong northerly winds to
the NW Caribbean and the lee of Cuba. Strong high pressure north
of the area is supporting fresh to strong trade winds through
much of the east-central Caribbean, including the Windward
Passage. Buoy and altimeter data indicate sea heights ranging
from 8 to 12 feet in the area of strongest winds. The gradient
will loosen across the region as the high pressure shifts
eastward ahead of the cold front in the southern Gulf of Mexico.

High pressure building north of the area in the wake of the front
will support fresh to strong trade winds once again in much of
the central and eastern Caribbean Sea and tropical Atlantic west
of 55W late in the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about gale-
force wind conditions in the western Atlantic Ocean.

A cold front extends from 32N77W to the coast of Florida near
Vero Beach, and across southern Florida into the Gulf of Mexico.
An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 31N47W in the
central Atlantic Ocean. A 1011 mb low pressure center is near
31N47W.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 14N
northward from 30W eastward. An upper level cyclonic circulation
center is near 30N12W off the coast of Morocco. A surface ridge
passes through 32N27W, to 25N28W, to 10N28W, about 620 nm to the
west of Africa. A 1016 mb low pressure center is near 30N12W, off
the coast of Morocco. The Meteo-France forecast consists of
strong breeze-to-near gale winds for the area of MADEIRA;
moderate-to-fresh winds, and at times strong for IRVING and
CASABLANCA. The 1016 mb low pressure center is forecast to drift
southward during the next 24 hours.

A strong surface ridge that extends southwest from the central
Atlantic continues to dominate the forecast region. A deepening
surface low passing near Cape Hatteras will drag a cold front
across the NW waters tonight. The front will reach from 31N64W
to eastern Cuba Tuesday night, and from 23N55W to the Windward
Passage Wednesday night, then gradually weakening. High pressure
behind the front will dominate the region through Thursday.
Another cold front is forecast to reach the north waters Friday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Mundell
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