[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 PM EST Fri Jan 26 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: The pressure gradient has significantly
tightened between a cold front that extends from 32N54W to 26N63W
to 24N70W where it becomes a stationary front to across the
central Bahamas and to central Cuba and very strong high pressure
of 1044 mb centered just offshore the Virginia/North Carolina
coast. This tightening of the pressure gradient has induced a
large area of near gale to minimal gale force NE to E over the
waters between the front and the Bahamas S of about 27N. Seas are
increasing with these winds to the range of 12 to 16 ft. Strong
NE to E winds are elsewhere W of the front. The latest model
guidance indicates that these winds will be slow in diminishing,
and as per the latest issued forecasts, these winds are forecast
to lessen to just below gale force on Sun afternoon. Seas at that
time will still remain quite high over the aforementioned waters,
in the 10 to 15 ft range. Please see the latest NHC High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers Misfit/FZNT02 KNHC for more
details on this event.

Caribbean Gale Warning: The combination of very strong high
pressure centered just offshore the Virginia/North Carolina coast
and lower pressure over South America is resulting in winds
reaching minimal gale force near the coast of Colombia. These
conditions in the present favorable synoptic pattern. Please see
the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details on this event.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough axis extends from the coast of Africa at
06N10W to 05N14W where the latest scatterometer data indicates
the ITCZ begins and continues to 02N23W to 01N30W to below the
Equator at 34W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is within 120 nm S of the axis between 32W-34W, and within 90 nm
N and S of the axis between 27W-29W. Scattered moderate convection
is N of the axis within 60 nm of line from 06N13W to 05N18W to
04N21W, and also S of the axis between 16W-22W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
Strong surface high pressure centered near the northeastern
United States is supporting a large area of 20 to 25 kt winds over
much of the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms along with patches of rain are noted
over much the central portions of the gulf. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are seen over the SW Gulf just E of a
surface trough that extends from 21N95W to 19N92W. Strong winds
are expected to continue over the eastern Gulf on Saturday. On
Sunday, the pattern is expected to change as low pressure is
predicted to take shape over the central Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details about
the gale conditions near the coast of Colombia.

Fresh to strong trades are occurring across much of the region,
especially west of 70W due to the aforementioned strong high
pressure system to the north of the area. The only area of notable
shower activity lies over the far western Caribbean Sea close to
the coasts of Honduras, Belize, and the southern portion of the
Yucatan Peninsula. This activity is mainly associated with a
surface trough, which was previously the southern extension of a
frontal boundary. Since the surface pattern is expected to change
very little through Sun, strong trade wind flow is forecast to
continue during the next couple of days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details about
the gale conditions over the waters E of the Bahamas eastward to
a cold front.

A cold front enters the discussion area through 32N54W to 26N63W
to 24N70W where it becomes a stationary front to across the
central Bahamas and to central Cuba, while very strong high
pressure of 1044 mb is situated along the coast of southeastern
Virginia and North Carolina. The resultant tight gradient has
increased the NE to E winds between the front and the Bahamas to
the ranges of near gale to minimal gale along with large seas.
These conditions are expected to continue into early Sun
afternoon. Scattered showers are within 60 nm either side of the
front. Farther east, another strong 1040 mb surface high centered
near 40N22W dominates the area E of the cold front maintaining
rather stable weather over much of central and eastern portions.

For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
ERA/Aguirre
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