[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261727
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1227 PM EST Fri Jan 26 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

The combination of a strong high pressure system off of the east
coast of the United States and lower pressure over South America
is resulting in winds occassionally reaching gale force near the
coast of Colombia. These conditions are expected through the
weekend as the weather patte rn persists. For more information,
please see the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through 05N11W to 03N17W. The ITCZ
continues from 03N17W to 00N38W. Scattered moderate convection
exists within 60 n mi south and 180 n mi north of the ITCZ between
23W and 30W. Similar activity exists within 240 n mi south of the
ITCZ west of 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
Strong surface high pressure centered near the northeastern
United States is supporting a large area of 20 to 25 kt winds over
much of the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers
exist near the Florida Straits due to the influence of a nearby
stalled front. Similar activity is occurring over the western Gulf
due to moist southwesterly upper-level flow and a surface trough
near the coast of Mexico. Looking ahead to the weekend, strong
winds are expected to continue over the eastern Gulf on Saturday.
On Sunday, the pattern is expected to change as low pressure is
predicted to take shape over the central Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details about
the gale conditions near the coast of Colombia.

Fresh to strong trades are occuring across much of the region,
especially west of 70W due to the aformentioned strong high
pressure system to the north of the area. The only area of notable
shower activity lies over the far western Caribbean Sea close to
the coasts of Honduras, Belize, and the southern portion of the
Yucatan Peninsula. This activity is mainly associated with a
surface trough, which was previously the southern extension of a
frontal boundary. Since the surface pattern is expected to hold
for much of the weekend, strong trade wind flow is forecast to
continue during the next couple of days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front enters the discussion area near 32N54W and extends
southwestward to 24N72W and then becomes stationary to central
Cuba. Strong north to northeasterly winds cover much of the
western Atlantic between the front and the strong high to its
northwest. These winds are very near gale force in a few
locations near the Bahama Islands, and seas are quite elevated
over the western Atlantic as well. A line of clouds and embedded
showers exist within 60 n mi either side of the front. Farther
east, another strong 1041 mb surface high centered near 40N23W
dominates the region. Although a large mid- to upper- level low
exists over the central Atlantic, this feature is not producing
any significant weather.

For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Cangialosi
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