[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261158
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
658 AM EST Fri Jan 26 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

The combination of high pressure in the central and eastern
Atlantic Ocean, and lower surface pressures in northern Colombia,
will support strong-to-minimal gale force easterly winds along
and near the coast of Colombia during the overnight hours during
the next few days, and into the upcoming weekend. The sea heights
are expected to range from 9 feet to 14 feet within this area from
10N to 13N between 74W and 77W. Please read the latest NHC High
Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for
more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through 06N11W to 03N17W. The ITCZ
continues from 03N17W to 01S33W. Scattered moderate convection
prevails along both boundaries between 13W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is in the SW corner of the area, from 23N96W to
17N92W inland in the eastern part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of
southern Mexico. Isolated showers from 25N southward from 90W
westward. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of
Mexico from 25N northward, anchored across the SE U.S.A.
This will maintain strong winds across the E half of the basin
through Saturday. The surface trough across the SW Gulf off the
Mexican coast will meander through Saturday, and a surface low
will develop from it this weekend. The low will then race across the NE
Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, and drag a cold front across the E Gulf
through Monday morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
gale-force winds expected off the coast of Colombia.

A dissipating stationary front curves from NW Cuba toward NW
Honduras. Small-scale upper level cyclonic wind flow remains in
the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, cover Central America from
Nicaragua to Belize/the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Scattered
moderate convection is from 16N to 18N between 85W and 90W, from
the waters of the NW Caribbean Sea to Belize and the neighboring
Yucatan Peninsula.

Strong high pressure N of the region will maintain strong trade
winds in the S central Caribbean Sea, from tonight through Sunday
night, increasing to gale-force along the the NW coast of
Colombia each night. Fresh to locally strong E-NE winds are
forecast across the N Caribbean Sea Friday through Saturday.
Moderate to fresh trades will continue across the tropical
Atlantic Ocean waters through Friday night, with strong NE winds
forecast from Saturday through Sunday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N60W to 26N72W. The front becomes
stationary, and it continues from 26N72W to the Caribbean Sea
coast of Cuba near 22N81W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds
and possible rainshowers are within 120 nm to 150 nm on either
side of the front. To the east, a surface ridge extends from a
1041 mb high pressure center that is near 40N26W, to 34N41W, and
through 30N45W to 28N55W. This feature covers the remainder of the
basin.

The frontal boundary will weaken and remain along 24N through
Saturday night. Wind speeds ranging from 25 knots to 30 knots,
and very large seas, are likely south of 25N from Friday through
Sunday, as a strong high pressure center shifts eastward north of
the area. The W part of the frontal boundary will lift N as a
warm front on Sunday night. A deepening surface low pressure
center moving across Florida into the Atlantic Ocean will drag a
cold front across the NW waters on Sunday night and Monday, with
the front reaching from 31N71W across the Bahamas to the Straits
of Florida on Monday night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA/MT
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