[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260539
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1239 AM EST Fri Jan 26 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

The combination of high pressure in the central and eastern
Atlantic Ocean, and lower surface pressures in northern Colombia,
will support strong-to-minimal gale force easterly winds along
and near the coast of Colombia during the overnight hours during
the next few days, and into the upcoming weekend. The sea heights,
in general, are expected to range from 9 feet to 14 feet within
this area. Specifically, for the next 12 hours: Expect NE-to-E
gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 9 feet to 13 feet,
from 10N to 13N between 74W and 77W. Please read the latest NHC
High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
for more details.

...THE MONSOON TROUGH/THE ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Liberia near
06N10W to 03N16W. The ITCZ continues from 03N16W to the Equator
along 30W, and then continue along the Equator from 30W until
43W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong from 03N
southward between 23W and 30W, and from 05N southward between 46W
and 51W. isolated moderate to locally strong elsewhere from 06N
southward from 52W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is in the SW corner of the area, from 23N96W to
17N92W inland in the eastern part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of
southern Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate rainshowers from
25N southward from 90W westward.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow, with high pressure, covers
the Gulf of Mexico from 26N northward.

Other precipitation: Rainshowers are possible elsewhere in the
Gulf of Mexico, in areas of broken low level clouds, from 25N
southward from 90W eastward, and from 25N northward from 90W
westward.

Strong high pressure across the SE U.S.A. will maintain strong
winds across the E half of the basin through Saturday. A surface
trough across the SW Gulf off the Mexican coast will meander
through Saturday, and then lift N as a warm front. A surface low
pressure center will develop along the warm front near 29N88W on
Sunday morning, and then race across the NE Gulf of Mexico on
Sunday, and drag a cold front across the E Gulf through Monday
morning.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
gale-force winds expected off the coast of Colombia.

A dissipating stationary front curves from NW Cuba toward NW
Honduras. Small-scale upper level cyclonic wind flow remains in
the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, cover Central America from
Nicaragua to Belize/the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Scattered to
broken low level clouds are curving cyclonically from the
Caribbean Sea toward Central America, from 80W westward.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers
from 16N to 18N between 85W and 90W, from the waters of the NW
Caribbean Sea to Belize and the neighboring Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico. Isolated moderate rainshowers elsewhere from 20N southward
from 80W westward.

Broken to overcast low level clouds and possible rainshowers are
elsewhere, from 15N to 20N between Puerto Rico and SE Cuba, and
elsewhere from 80W eastward.

Strong high pressure N of the region will maintain strong trade
winds in the S central Caribbean Sea, from tonight through Sunday
night, increasing to gale-force along the the NW coast of
Colombia each night. Fresh to locally strong E-NE winds are
forecast across the N Caribbean Sea Friday through Saturday.
Moderate to fresh trades will continue across the tropical
Atlantic Ocean waters through Friday night, with strong NE winds
forecast from Saturday through Sunday night.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N60W to 26N72W. The front becomes
stationary, and it continues from 26N72W to the Caribbean Sea
coast of Cuba near 22N81W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds
and possible rainshowers are within 120 nm to 150 nm on either
side of the line that passes through 32N60W to 27N70W to 22N78W.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 22N44W. Upper
level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 13N to 27N
between 38W and 51W. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from
13N to 30N between 37W and 52W, with broken to overcast low level
clouds. This feature is becoming comparatively weaker and weaker
with time.

A surface ridge extends from a 1041 mb high pressure center that
is near 40N26W, to 34N41W, and through 30N45W to 28N55W.

The frontal boundary will weaken and remain along 24N through
Saturday night. Wind speeds ranging from 25 knots to 30 knots,
and very large seas, are likely south of 25N from Friday through
Sunday, as a strong high pressure center shifts eastward north of
the area. The W part of the frontal boundary will lift N as a
warm front on Sunday night. A deepening surface low pressure
center moving across Florida into the Atlantic Ocean will drag a
cold front across the NW waters on Sunday night and Monday, with
the front reaching from 31N71W across the Bahamas to the Straits
of Florida on Monday night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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