[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260004
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
704 PM EST Thu Jan 25 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

The combination of high pressure in the central and eastern
Atlantic Ocean, and lower surface pressures in northern Colombia,
will support strong-to-minimal gale force easterly winds along
and near the coast of Colombia during the overnight hours during
the next few days, and into the upcoming weekend. The sea heights
are expected to be in the range of 9 feet to 14 feet within this
area. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...THE MONSOON TROUGH/THE ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Liberia near
06N10W to 02N16W. The ITCZ continues from 02N16W to the Equator
along 27W, along the Equator from 27W until 34W, to 01N42W, to
the Equator along 50W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong from 06N southward from 52W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Strong high pres across the E and SE U.S. will maintain strong
winds across the E half of the basin through Sat. A trough across
the far SW Gulf waters just offshore of Mexican coast will meander
there through early Sat, then lift N as a warm front Sat
afternoon, with a surface low developing along the warm front and
reaching near 29N88W Sun morning. The low will race NE across the
Florida Big Bend on Sun evening, while dragging a cold front
across the E Gulf waters on Sun night through M

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
gale-force winds expected off the coast of Colombia.

Strong high pres N of the region will maintain strong tradewinds
across the S central Caribbean through Mon night increasing to
gale force along the the NW coast of Colombia during the overnight
hours. A stationary front from W central Cuba to N Belize will
gradually weaken through Sat. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are
forecast across the NW Caribbean this evening, with strong to
near gale force NE winds spreading SE across the NE Caribbean
waters Fri night through Sat. Moderate to fresh trades will
continue across the tropical Atlc waters E of the Windwards
through Fri night, with strong NE winds forecast Sat through Sun
night.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends SW from 31N64W through the central Bahamas
then across W central Cuba. The front will move slowly SE and
stall from 24N65W to central Cuba on Fri evening, with remnants of
the front gradually weakening between 20N and 23N through Sat
night. The W portion of the frontal remnants will lift N as a warm
front across the Straits of Florida on Sun night ahead of a
surface low moving NE off the N Florida coast. This low pres
center will drag a cold front E across the Straits of Florida on
Mon with the front reaching the Central Bahamas late Mon night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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