[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270152 AAA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
851 PM EST Fri Jan 26 2018

Updated Caribbean Sea section

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: The pressure gradient has significantly
tightened between a cold front that extends from 32N54W to 26N63W
to 24N70W where it becomes a stationary front to across the
central Bahamas and to central Cuba and very strong high pressure
of 1044 mb centered just offshore the Virginia/North Carolina
coast. This tightening of the pressure gradient has induced a
large area of near gale to minimal gale force NE to E winds over
the waters between the front and the Bahamas S of about 27N.
Seas are increasing with these winds to the range of 12 to 16
ft. Strong NE to E winds are elsewhere W of the front. The
latest model guidance indicates that these winds will be slow in
diminishing, and as per the latest issued forecasts, these winds
are forecast to lessen to just below gale force on Sun
afternoon. Seas at that time will still remain quite high over
the aforementioned waters, in the 10 to 15 ft range. Please see
the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
Misfit/FZNT02 KNHC for more details on this event.

Caribbean Gale Warning: The combination of very strong high
pressure centered just offshore the Virginia/North Carolina coast
and lower pressure over South America is resulting in winds
reaching minimal gale force near the coast of Colombia. These
conditions will persist late at night into the early morning
hours under the present favorable synoptic pattern. Please see
the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details on this event.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough axis extends from the coast of Africa at
06N10W to 05N14W where the latest scatterometer data indicates
the ITCZ begins and continues to 02N23W to 01N30W to below the
Equator at 34W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is within 120 nm S of the axis between 32W-34W, and within 90 nm
N and S of the axis between 27W-29W. Scattered moderate convection
is N of the axis within 60 nm of line from 06N13W to 05N18W to
04N21W, and also S of the axis between 16W-22W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
Strong surface high pressure centered near the northeastern
United States is supporting a large area of 20 to 25 kt winds over
much of the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms along with patches of rain are noted
over much the central portions of the gulf. This activity is
lifting NNE. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen
over the SW Gulf just E of a surface trough that extends from 21N95W
to 19N92W. Strong winds are expected to continue over the eastern Gulf
on Sat. On Sun, the pattern is expected to change as low pressure is
forecast to develop over the N central waters along a warm front
that will evolve from the SW surface trough as it lifts
northward. The low is forecast to quickly move across the NE
Gulf on Sun while pushing a cold front across the eastern gulf
waters through early on Mon. Expect widespread rain along with
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms with system.

CARIBBEAN SEA...Updated
Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details about
regarding the gale conditions near the coast of Colombia.

Fresh to strong trades are occurring across much of the region,
especially west of 70W due to the aforementioned strong high
pressure system to the north of the area. The only area of
notable scattered shower and isolated thunderstorm activity
exists over the far western Caribbean Sea close to the coasts of
Honduras, Belize, and the southern portion of the Yucatan
Peninsula. Similar activity has recently developed over the
waters between Jamiaca and 82W. Since the surface pattern is
expected to change very little through Sun, strong trade wind
flow is forecast to continue during the next couple of days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details about
the gale conditions over portions of the waters between the
Bahamas and a central Atlantic cold front.

A cold front enters the discussion area through 32N54W to 26N63W
to 24N70W where it becomes a stationary front to across the
central Bahamas and to central Cuba, while very strong high
pressure of 1044 mb is situated along the coast of southeastern
Virginia and North Carolina. The resultant tight gradient has
increased the NE to E winds between the front and the Bahamas to
the ranges of near gale to minimal gale along with large seas.
These conditions are expected to continue into early Sun
afternoon. Scattered showers are within 60 nm either side of the
front. Farther east, another strong 1040 mb surface high centered
near 40N22W dominates the area E of the cold front maintaining
rather stable weather over much of the central and eastern sections
of the area, except for the far eastern portion S of 24N and E of
40W where abundant mid and upper level clouds are streaming
eastward towards Africa ahead of a mid to upper level trough
located N of 15N between 30W and 40W.

For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
ERA/Aguirre
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net