[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051611
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1111 AM EST Fri Jan 5 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 04N08W to
03N17W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
03N17W to 02N33W to the Equator near 41W. Scattered moderate
convection is from the Equator to 04N between 07W-14W...and from
04N-08N between 26W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
Surface ridging prevails across the Gulf this afternoon anchored
by a 1032 mb high centered across Mississippi near 33N91W. Gentle
to moderate E-NE winds prevail this afternoon and are expected to
continue through early Saturday morning. Thereafter...the ridging
will weaken slightly while sliding eastward across the SE CONUS
as global models suggest weak troughing to develop within easterly
winds across the central Gulf along 90W Saturday afternoon and
evening. Troughing that does develop will initiate moderate to
fresh E-SE winds across the eastern Gulf ahead of the next area
of low pressure to develop across the Texas and Oklahoma
panhandles on Sunday. The associated cold front is expected to
emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coasts on Monday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Southwesterly flow aloft is occurring over the western and central
Caribbean between broad middle to upper level troughing noted on
water vapor imagery over the Gulf of Mexico and an upper level
anticyclone centered over the eastern Caribbean near 14N62W. The
troughing supports a stationary front extending from across
Hispaniola to 15N78W to 10N80W. Low-level moisture convergence is
maximized in the vicinity of the front with scattered showers and
tstms occurring within 150 nm either side of the boundary. To the
NW of the front...fresh to strong N-NE winds prevail and generally
E of the front moderate to fresh trades persist under mostly fair
skies. The stationary front is expected to remain in place through
the weekend and begin to weaken and become diffuse Sunday night
into Monday.

...HISPANIOLA...
Scattered showers and isolated tstms are expected to continue
through the weekend as a stationary front is analyzed across the
island and regional coastal waters. Most active convection is
noted within 150 nm either side of the front S of 18N...however
upper level southwesterly winds will remain favorable for
convective development across interior portions of the island this
afternoon and evening. Fresh to strong NE winds will persist
through the Windward Passage and northern coast exposures through
Monday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Middle to upper level troughing is noted on water vapor imagery
over the eastern CONUS supporting a cold front extending into the
discussion area near 32N58W SW to 21N69W then becomes stationary
to across western Hispaniola and into the SW Caribbean Sea.
Scattered showers and tstms are occurring N of 25N within 150 nm
E of the front...with scattered showers and isolated tstms
occurring elsewhere within 150 nm either side of the front. A
secondary cold front extends from 32N66W to 29N75W and remains
embedded within fresh to strong W-NW winds. Otherwise...the
remainder of the SW North Atlc is under the influence of a surface
ridge axis extending from across the Florida panhandle SE to
across the Bahamas. Farther east...the remainder of the central
and eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge
anchored by a 1037 mb high centered W of the Azores near 39N35W.
Within the eastern periphery of the ridging...a cold front is
pushing southward across the Madeira Islands from 33N17W to
32N30W. This colder airmass is ushering in another round of fresh
to strong N-NW winds across the far northeastern discussion waters
this afternoon.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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